Dear Governor Allin,
I would like to thank you for not banning "those darn Jews from Russia" from entering North Dakota in 1895. I know this isn't comparable to the crisis facing Syrian refugees in 2015, but there were some parallels for Jews living in Russia in the late 19th century. I have a great life. I couldn't ask for anything better. I fully understand that my great-grandparents had a very rough life, my grandparents grew up in the midst of the Great Depression and, frankly, struggled to get by, and my parents were at best on the lower-end spectrum of the middle class, but I have a bright future and an abundance of opportunity awaiting me. I owe a lot of my existence to the struggles of my predecessors. Forgive me if this is too much candor, but I think they would agree with this: they would gladly bear the burden of lifelong struggles if it meant that a future generation would live life comfortably.
I like to think that, in 120 years, the great-grandson of a Syrian refugee will reflect on his upbringing and be grateful for all of the opportunities afforded to him. He might look back to one defining moment - the benevolence demonstrated by a strange group of people - and understand that compassion played a direct role in his livelihood. Per the conservative paradigm of human population growth, it is commonly accepted that more traits and skills in the "human talent pool" lead to better solutions for future (un)anticipated problems. Who is to say that this 120-years-from-now refugee will not grow up to cure cancer? Reduce our dependence on fossil fuels? Become an expert carpenter? Teach the next generation of scientists? Become an exceptional stay-at-home dad? Explore the final frontier? Improve farming efficiency? Give considerably to philanthropic endeavors? Become a world-class pianist? As Julian Simon contended, our greatest resource is humans. As far as I am aware, a Syrian is every bit as human as this little-known blogger.
Sincerely,
The great-grandson of a Jew living in Russia in 1895.
Tuesday, November 17, 2015
Thursday, November 20, 2014
I fell down the Reddit comments rabbit hole... and found this.
Tuesday, September 2, 2014
The Family League Draft
So this league is a keeper league. You get to keep one player for the cost of where you drafted them last year minus one round (minimum of an 8th rounder for waiver pickups and late picks). I decided to use my 4th round pick to keep Matthew Stafford. Unfortunately, I had the first pick of the fourth round, so I didn't get super good value there, but I did still get him a couple picks later than he's been going according to Yahoo and ESPN's ADP. I could have had C.J. Spiller for pick 60 (ADP is 45) or Jordan Cameron in the 8th (pick 85, ADP somewhere between 53 and 70 depending where you look). Maybe I should have gone for one of the other guys, but I just don't want to deal with Spiller should he face nagging injuries again and I'm not super high on Cameron given he had 7 games with 4 or fewer points and 9 games with 6 or fewer last year, wasn't particularly great in the second half of last season and faces questions surrounding his team's QB situation. I went with the safe(ish) guy.
The league is a standard scoring, standard lineup, snake draft league and I have pick 12 of 12.
Round 1 - Demaryius Thomas - WR - Den
Once again, I'm happy to spend a late first round pick on the WR who is second on my WR board.
Round 2 - Arian Foster - RB - Hou
I thought about going with a second elite WR (A.J., Dez, and Julio were all still available), but knowing that 22 players would be gone before I get to pick again, I decided that I would need to get a solid RB here. After the top 6 RBs are gone, I don't think there is such a thing, but regardless, I decided to gamble on Arian's back and hamstrings.
Round 3 - Andre Johnson - WR - Hou
Going into his 12th season, Andre has probably lost a step or two, but if he could get 1400 yds and 5 TDs in an offense as mediocre as Houston's was last year, I'm ok spending a late 3rd rounder on the guy.
Round 4 - Matthew Stafford - QB - Det
I'm expecting 4500 yds and 30+ TDs. I'm OK with this value given how highly this league tends to value QBs (once again, 3 were gone by the end of the 3rd).
Round 5 - Roddy White - WR - Atl
What can I say? I got him in almost the same spot as in my other league interestingly enough.
Round 6 - Steven Jackson - RB - Atl
What's not to love about a starting RB in the 6th round?
Round 7 - Jeremy Hill - RB - Cin
I think he gets 30-40% of the work in Cincy this year. And if Gio falters or gets hurt, Jeremy Hill could produce quite nicely.
Round 8 - Bernard Pierce - RB - Bal
Just stockpiling RB depth here. I don't think Pierce is amazing by any means, but could have value should something happen to Rice.
Round 9 - Mike Evans - WR - TB
I believe they call this "taking a flier." He's a big dude who can make plays. Shouldn't see too much double coverage with Vincent Jackson lining up on the other side of the field.
Round 10 - Russel Wilson - QB - Sea
I don't necessarily feel like I need a backup QB, but getting last year's #8 fantasy QB (and I don't see any reason for a large regression) this late is just too good of a value to pass up. The couple TEs I had been looking at didn't fall to me either, so it was an easy call to make.
Round 11 - Delanie Walker - TE - Ten
I think I was the last person to draft my TE and a couple had taken backups, so I picked Delanie out of the scrap pile.
Round 12 - Chris Ivory - RB - NYJ
More RB depth. This is sort of pick-your-favorite-medium-upside-backup territory.
Round 13 - KC DST
Since I'll be having the last pick in the draft, I figured I might as well get D and Kicker a hair early again. KC was hot last year. Don't think they'll repeat what they did last year, but there were half a dozen defenses already taken.
Round 14 - Adam Vinatieri - K - Ind
Round 15 - Christine Michael - RB - Sea
(see Ivory, Chris)
My Starting Roster
QB: Stafford
RB1: Foster
RB2: S. Jackson
WR1: D. Thomas
WR2: A. Johnson
Flex: R. White
TE: D. Walker
D/ST: KC
K: Vinatieri
B: J. Hill
B: B. Pierce
B: M. Evans
B: R. Wilson
B: C. Ivory
B: C. Michael
I'm pretty happy with this lineup. If every team owner came up to me and asked "would you like to swap teams" I would answer "sure, why not?" to probably 4 of them. One of which would border on "yes, please." I think I look good to be in the playoff hunt, assuming last years injury bug doesn't come back and bite me again. In hindsight, I perhaps should have just kept Cameron. Considering what was left at TE when the 8th round came around, Cameron would have looked amazing. I probably wouldn't have been able to still get Stafford in the 4th, but my RB situation would probably look a bit better and I'd still have found a good value at QB. Unfortunately, our keeper picks were due right around the time training camps started up and I forgot about the due date and wasn't able to put a ton of research or thought into the decision at the time.
The league is a standard scoring, standard lineup, snake draft league and I have pick 12 of 12.
Round 1 - Demaryius Thomas - WR - Den
Once again, I'm happy to spend a late first round pick on the WR who is second on my WR board.
Round 2 - Arian Foster - RB - Hou
I thought about going with a second elite WR (A.J., Dez, and Julio were all still available), but knowing that 22 players would be gone before I get to pick again, I decided that I would need to get a solid RB here. After the top 6 RBs are gone, I don't think there is such a thing, but regardless, I decided to gamble on Arian's back and hamstrings.
Round 3 - Andre Johnson - WR - Hou
Going into his 12th season, Andre has probably lost a step or two, but if he could get 1400 yds and 5 TDs in an offense as mediocre as Houston's was last year, I'm ok spending a late 3rd rounder on the guy.
Round 4 - Matthew Stafford - QB - Det
I'm expecting 4500 yds and 30+ TDs. I'm OK with this value given how highly this league tends to value QBs (once again, 3 were gone by the end of the 3rd).
Round 5 - Roddy White - WR - Atl
What can I say? I got him in almost the same spot as in my other league interestingly enough.
Round 6 - Steven Jackson - RB - Atl
What's not to love about a starting RB in the 6th round?
Round 7 - Jeremy Hill - RB - Cin
I think he gets 30-40% of the work in Cincy this year. And if Gio falters or gets hurt, Jeremy Hill could produce quite nicely.
Round 8 - Bernard Pierce - RB - Bal
Just stockpiling RB depth here. I don't think Pierce is amazing by any means, but could have value should something happen to Rice.
Round 9 - Mike Evans - WR - TB
I believe they call this "taking a flier." He's a big dude who can make plays. Shouldn't see too much double coverage with Vincent Jackson lining up on the other side of the field.
Round 10 - Russel Wilson - QB - Sea
I don't necessarily feel like I need a backup QB, but getting last year's #8 fantasy QB (and I don't see any reason for a large regression) this late is just too good of a value to pass up. The couple TEs I had been looking at didn't fall to me either, so it was an easy call to make.
Round 11 - Delanie Walker - TE - Ten
I think I was the last person to draft my TE and a couple had taken backups, so I picked Delanie out of the scrap pile.
Round 12 - Chris Ivory - RB - NYJ
More RB depth. This is sort of pick-your-favorite-medium-upside-backup territory.
Round 13 - KC DST
Since I'll be having the last pick in the draft, I figured I might as well get D and Kicker a hair early again. KC was hot last year. Don't think they'll repeat what they did last year, but there were half a dozen defenses already taken.
Round 14 - Adam Vinatieri - K - Ind
Round 15 - Christine Michael - RB - Sea
(see Ivory, Chris)
My Starting Roster
QB: Stafford
RB1: Foster
RB2: S. Jackson
WR1: D. Thomas
WR2: A. Johnson
Flex: R. White
TE: D. Walker
D/ST: KC
K: Vinatieri
B: J. Hill
B: B. Pierce
B: M. Evans
B: R. Wilson
B: C. Ivory
B: C. Michael
I'm pretty happy with this lineup. If every team owner came up to me and asked "would you like to swap teams" I would answer "sure, why not?" to probably 4 of them. One of which would border on "yes, please." I think I look good to be in the playoff hunt, assuming last years injury bug doesn't come back and bite me again. In hindsight, I perhaps should have just kept Cameron. Considering what was left at TE when the 8th round came around, Cameron would have looked amazing. I probably wouldn't have been able to still get Stafford in the 4th, but my RB situation would probably look a bit better and I'd still have found a good value at QB. Unfortunately, our keeper picks were due right around the time training camps started up and I forgot about the due date and wasn't able to put a ton of research or thought into the decision at the time.
Thursday, August 28, 2014
You know what time it is.
It's the beginning of that time of year in which this blog is actually somewhat active. It's fantasy football season. I just had my first draft of the year last night. This draft is for the Gopher League, currently a 10-team league, created by myself and my roommates a few years back and now populated with a few different friends and relatives of original members. Standard scoring, snake draft. I have pick 8. Let's go.
Round 1 - Demaryius Thomas - WR - Den
All the running backs I really like were gone, as was Megatron. So I decided on another athletic receiver in a high-scoring, pass-heavy offense. I figure, of the guys left, this was the guy with first-round caliber potential that was least likely to tank my season.
Round 2 - Jimmy Graham - TE - NO
I wasn't really feeling running back here, since there were still elite options at QB, WR, and TE available. Peyton was gone, but Rodgers and Brees were available (I'm of the opinion that those three qbs are all equally likely to lead the league in fantasy scoring this year). AJ Green and Dez were gone, but Julio Jones was still available. I thought about doubling up at receiver and trying to win by having dominance at the WR position. Now, normally I'm not a believer in drafting a TE super early, but Jimmy has shown he has the potential to score like a top 5-10 WR. I wouldn't consider him in the first, and I probably would have taken AJ or Dez, but Julio is just a little too injury prone for me to pass on Jimmy. We'll see how this whole "have a weekly advantage at the TE position" thing works out.
Round 3 - Reggie Bush - RB - Det
I don't love this pick. I would have much rather had Alfred Morris, who went one pick before mine. But I needed a RB.
Round 4 - Antonio Brown - WR - Pit
I thought about grabbing another "meh" RB, but decided to grab one of my top ten WRs. I'll take that with a 4th rounder.
Round 5 - Rashad Jennings - RB - NYG
Not a sexy pick, but he should get most of the RB work in this offense which likes to run (and will need to run if Eli is Eli). He looked good last year and is looking good in the preseason, so this could turn out to be one of my better value picks this year. Or he could show everyone why he was never the week 1 starter in his first 5 years in the league.
Round 6 - Roddy White - WR - Atl
I think at this point, Roddy White is officially my fantasy football boyfriend. We've been seeing each other every season for a while now. Hopefully he isn't hiding an injury that will hobble him all season again. He's a big receiver with good hands, who until last year, was one of the most consistent receivers in the league. He might be getting a little old, but I think he should do fine as my flex.
Round 7 - Ray Rice - RB - Bal
Go ahead. I'll wait. Make your woman-beater joke. Whatever. This is the part of the draft where I start stockpiling RB depth. He might be worn out. Or he might look a bit like the old Ray Rice and be productive in Gary Kubiak's offense. We'll see.
Round 8 - Darren Sproles - RB - Phi
Once again, I would have much rather had the unsexy back who went one pick earlier. This time it was Steven Jackson I missed out on. Both guys are on the old side of 30. Both have some potential left. Given the question marks around my current starters, I would rather have the definitive starter and goal line back in Jackson, but alas.
Round 9 - Maurice Jones-Drew - RB - Oak
Maybe I should have gone with some up-and-comer who might emerge at this point, rather than another has-been. That said, the options at this point aren't great. Others I could have had were Knowshon Moreno, Deangelo Williams, Khiry Robinson, Carlos Hyde, Lamar Miller, Chris Ivory etc... That said, MJD did do a lot with only three touches against the Packers the other day, so maybe he won't be total shit.
Round 10 - Tony Romo - QB - Dal
Finally got my QB. I'm pretty happy with the value here. He's got some risks, but also has a ton of upside.
Round 11 - Riley Cooper - WR - Phi
More WR depth. Philly needs a big play receiver. Riley was that guy last year at times. DeSean is gone and Maclin is by no means a lock to stay healthy. Give me the guy who yells racial slurs in the club.
Round 12 - Philip Rivers - QB - SD
Tony Romo is one of those QBs worth backing up. It was Rivers or Cutler.
Round 13 - Nick Novak - K - SD
WTF Bockmed? A kicker before the last round? Hear me out. I will be having the third to last pick. Nobody here really stuck out to me. The few sleepers I like were gone. So I figure I could take my kicker and DST a little early to get something a hair better. I grabbed the kicker first because the two guys picking before my next pick already had defenses.
Round 14 - Cardinals D/ST
They're pretty good, I guess.
Round 15 - Malcolm Floyd - WR - SD
My Starting Roster
QB: Romo
RB1: Bush
RB2: Jennings
WR1: D. Thomas
WR2: A. Brown
TE: Graham
Flex: White
D: Cardinals
K: Novak
B: Rice
B: Sproles
B: MJD
B: Cooper
B: Rivers
B: Floyd
If I had these RBs in 2011, I would have won the shit out of this league. I think my QB is fine and my pass-catching corps might be the best in this league. My only worry is at the RB position. I've got decent depth I think, but my starters look a hair shaky and none of my backups look poised to break out and become stars (again). I think one or two teams look better than mine at this point, and 5 or 6 look about the same and a couple I can say really look worse. Should be an interesting year.
Round 1 - Demaryius Thomas - WR - Den
All the running backs I really like were gone, as was Megatron. So I decided on another athletic receiver in a high-scoring, pass-heavy offense. I figure, of the guys left, this was the guy with first-round caliber potential that was least likely to tank my season.
Round 2 - Jimmy Graham - TE - NO
I wasn't really feeling running back here, since there were still elite options at QB, WR, and TE available. Peyton was gone, but Rodgers and Brees were available (I'm of the opinion that those three qbs are all equally likely to lead the league in fantasy scoring this year). AJ Green and Dez were gone, but Julio Jones was still available. I thought about doubling up at receiver and trying to win by having dominance at the WR position. Now, normally I'm not a believer in drafting a TE super early, but Jimmy has shown he has the potential to score like a top 5-10 WR. I wouldn't consider him in the first, and I probably would have taken AJ or Dez, but Julio is just a little too injury prone for me to pass on Jimmy. We'll see how this whole "have a weekly advantage at the TE position" thing works out.
Round 3 - Reggie Bush - RB - Det
I don't love this pick. I would have much rather had Alfred Morris, who went one pick before mine. But I needed a RB.
Round 4 - Antonio Brown - WR - Pit
I thought about grabbing another "meh" RB, but decided to grab one of my top ten WRs. I'll take that with a 4th rounder.
Round 5 - Rashad Jennings - RB - NYG
Not a sexy pick, but he should get most of the RB work in this offense which likes to run (and will need to run if Eli is Eli). He looked good last year and is looking good in the preseason, so this could turn out to be one of my better value picks this year. Or he could show everyone why he was never the week 1 starter in his first 5 years in the league.
Round 6 - Roddy White - WR - Atl
I think at this point, Roddy White is officially my fantasy football boyfriend. We've been seeing each other every season for a while now. Hopefully he isn't hiding an injury that will hobble him all season again. He's a big receiver with good hands, who until last year, was one of the most consistent receivers in the league. He might be getting a little old, but I think he should do fine as my flex.
Round 7 - Ray Rice - RB - Bal
Go ahead. I'll wait. Make your woman-beater joke. Whatever. This is the part of the draft where I start stockpiling RB depth. He might be worn out. Or he might look a bit like the old Ray Rice and be productive in Gary Kubiak's offense. We'll see.
Round 8 - Darren Sproles - RB - Phi
Once again, I would have much rather had the unsexy back who went one pick earlier. This time it was Steven Jackson I missed out on. Both guys are on the old side of 30. Both have some potential left. Given the question marks around my current starters, I would rather have the definitive starter and goal line back in Jackson, but alas.
Round 9 - Maurice Jones-Drew - RB - Oak
Maybe I should have gone with some up-and-comer who might emerge at this point, rather than another has-been. That said, the options at this point aren't great. Others I could have had were Knowshon Moreno, Deangelo Williams, Khiry Robinson, Carlos Hyde, Lamar Miller, Chris Ivory etc... That said, MJD did do a lot with only three touches against the Packers the other day, so maybe he won't be total shit.
Round 10 - Tony Romo - QB - Dal
Finally got my QB. I'm pretty happy with the value here. He's got some risks, but also has a ton of upside.
Round 11 - Riley Cooper - WR - Phi
More WR depth. Philly needs a big play receiver. Riley was that guy last year at times. DeSean is gone and Maclin is by no means a lock to stay healthy. Give me the guy who yells racial slurs in the club.
Round 12 - Philip Rivers - QB - SD
Tony Romo is one of those QBs worth backing up. It was Rivers or Cutler.
Round 13 - Nick Novak - K - SD
WTF Bockmed? A kicker before the last round? Hear me out. I will be having the third to last pick. Nobody here really stuck out to me. The few sleepers I like were gone. So I figure I could take my kicker and DST a little early to get something a hair better. I grabbed the kicker first because the two guys picking before my next pick already had defenses.
Round 14 - Cardinals D/ST
They're pretty good, I guess.
Round 15 - Malcolm Floyd - WR - SD
My Starting Roster
QB: Romo
RB1: Bush
RB2: Jennings
WR1: D. Thomas
WR2: A. Brown
TE: Graham
Flex: White
D: Cardinals
K: Novak
B: Rice
B: Sproles
B: MJD
B: Cooper
B: Rivers
B: Floyd
If I had these RBs in 2011, I would have won the shit out of this league. I think my QB is fine and my pass-catching corps might be the best in this league. My only worry is at the RB position. I've got decent depth I think, but my starters look a hair shaky and none of my backups look poised to break out and become stars (again). I think one or two teams look better than mine at this point, and 5 or 6 look about the same and a couple I can say really look worse. Should be an interesting year.
Wednesday, August 27, 2014
It's safe to say that
I get a fair amount of my entertainment from YouTube. I'm not sure what it was, but something compelled me to realize that I have been subscribed to a few channels for 4 or 5 years now. So I thought it would be interesting to go back and watch some of their older videos from when I first subscribed and see how their style, production quality and personality have changed since then. It has been a satisfying adventure so far. Here's one of my favorite oldies.
Monday, July 7, 2014
TI4 Starts Tomorrow.
Get Hyped. For those of you who don't know. The International is an annual Dota 2 tournament put on by the game developer, Valve. 19 of the best teams from Europe, China, SEA, and the Americas have qualified to compete for a $10.5 million prize pool. That's insane. That's more money than was handed out at the Masters golf tourney this year. And there will probably be more people who watch the TI Grand Finals than the Masters, the World Series and many other major sporting events. There'll be about 130 games in the group stage, followed by 2 phases of playoff matches leading up to the best of 5 series on July 21 which will decide which team of 5 will take home $5+ million. No sane person could watch every game. I plan on trolling /r/dota2 to figure out which games were the best, most exciting and watching a replay here or there. If you're reading this, watch a game or two. You'll have no clue what the fuck is going on if you've never played the game before, but if the casters are good, you'll be pulled in anyway. Some day down the line, you'll be able to tell your kids that you were there when esports started to really become mainstream. I don't know. I think that's kind of cool.
If you're actually interested check out:
If you're actually interested check out:
learning to watch Dota 2 as a newcomer and
Monday, May 12, 2014
Saturday, January 25, 2014
Tuesday, September 10, 2013
Wednesday, September 4, 2013
#CatTeamBrotherhood
After seeing this post on reddit, I was inspired to do this.
Well worth the time it took to draft. We'll see how this team does in this random public 10-teamer.
Tuesday, September 3, 2013
The revival of the college friends league
2 years ago, a buddy and I tried to kick off a would-be keeper league with some college friends of ours. Due to some murkiness of the rules and a few inattentive owners, the league didn't make it to year two.
Well, with a few fresh faces who will hopefully remain active, and a simplification of the ruleset, the league is back in the form of a ten-team, standard roster and scoring, snake draft, $20 league. To the draft!
My team (by round):
5 C.J. Spiller, Buf RB
16 Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac RB
25 Brandon Marshall, Chi WR
36 Peyton Manning, Den QB
45 Marques Colston, NO WR
56 Dwayne Bowe, KC WR
65 Ryan Mathews, SD RB
76 Pierre Garcon, Wsh WR
85 BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Cin RB
96 Mike Williams, TB WR
105 Emmanuel Sanders, Pit WR
116 Jared Cook, StL TE
125 Patriots D/ST D/ST
136 Christine Michael, Sea RB
145 Greg Zuerlein, StL K
I have to say, I'm pretty happy with this team in general. I think it's well-balanced and has a good mix of steady producers and guys who could significantly outperform their draft position. I'm also pretty happy with how I managed this draft and where I took my guys.
My first round decision was between Rice, Spiller and Charles. Since he's my keeper in the family league, I figure I might as well go all-in on Spiller this year. While I think Rice still has plenty to give, his best years are most likely behind him at this point. That leaves Spiller and Charles, two guys in new systems with ridiculous quicks and insane yards per carry averages. In the end, I like Spiller better because, last year, he produced more fantasy points than Charles on fewer touches and was more consistent. And his new coordinator wants to feed him the ball as much as he can.
I like MJD as a high-end number 2 RB this year. I think he's healthy and still has the ability to just pile up stats as perhaps the only reliable weapon on his team. I was tempted by the likes of Dez Bryant, but I felt that there were enough top-tier wideouts left and a pretty big dropoff after MJD at RB. I lucked out and managed to still land Marshall after waiting 8 picks.
Next up, I was deciding between Peyton and Gronk. I felt that Peyton had fallen too far and wouldn't make it back to me at the next pick, but I at least had a shot at Gronk doing so. Unfortunately, I missed out on Gronk by 2 picks, so I took Colston, a top receiver on a powerful passing offense. I would be surprised if he made it inside the top 10. I would also be surprised if he fell outside the top 20, assuming he's mostly healthy throughout the year. While he can be boom and bust week-to-week, I think his overall production is as reliable as it comes.
Approaching the next turn, I had 3 WRs and 3 RBs left in their respective tiers, so I looked at the guys between my next two picks and noticed that many of them still needed tons of help at WR. So I grabbed Bowe first and managed to still land Mathews on the way back. It's strategic moves like this that make snake drafts at least somewhat interesting. Both of these guys are kind of "has-beens" but have shown great things in the preseason, and still have the ability AND opportunity to be top-10 guys at their respective positions. I'll take that out of my 3rd WR and RB in a shallow ten-teamer.
Regarding the rest of the draft, once again, I waited the shit out of TE having missed Gronk. I knew I was never going to get Graham, since that takes a second round pick this year. In terms of value, I think that's a bad move, as it would take a historic TE season to justify that draft position. However, I like Gronk around the 4th round, because he scores more points per game than Graham and I think he is well on his way to a mid-September return to full-speed. So rather than reaching on any other TE, I just took whoever was available when I felt it was time to grab a TE. I like Witten and Gonzalez and the potential of Vernon Davis, but those guys are going too high as well. After those guys, all the Greg Olsens, Owen Daniels, Kyle Rudolphs and Jared Cooks are all the same to me, so I'm fine getting Cook.
Normally, I would say that anyone who takes a defense before the second to last round is a total fantasy n00b. I broke my golden rule this year. Frankly, in a 10-team league, everyone's team is stacked with talent at all the offensive positions and there is always plenty to find on the waiver-wire, so I think that getting a better defense might help me out. I like that the Jets, Dophins and Bills all have terrible QB situations, meaning plenty of opportunities for the Pats D to capitalize and put up good scores.
Overall, there's only 2 or 3 teams I can look at and say that I would much rather have my team than theirs. Everyone else is pretty strong across the board. Such is life in a ten-team league. Looking at draft results is kind of boring. I was hoping to get to 12 strong, but it wasn't to be. We'll see how this one plays out. It should be fun, anyway.
Well, with a few fresh faces who will hopefully remain active, and a simplification of the ruleset, the league is back in the form of a ten-team, standard roster and scoring, snake draft, $20 league. To the draft!
My team (by round):
5 C.J. Spiller, Buf RB
16 Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac RB
25 Brandon Marshall, Chi WR
36 Peyton Manning, Den QB
45 Marques Colston, NO WR
56 Dwayne Bowe, KC WR
65 Ryan Mathews, SD RB
76 Pierre Garcon, Wsh WR
85 BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Cin RB
96 Mike Williams, TB WR
105 Emmanuel Sanders, Pit WR
116 Jared Cook, StL TE
125 Patriots D/ST D/ST
136 Christine Michael, Sea RB
145 Greg Zuerlein, StL K
I have to say, I'm pretty happy with this team in general. I think it's well-balanced and has a good mix of steady producers and guys who could significantly outperform their draft position. I'm also pretty happy with how I managed this draft and where I took my guys.
My first round decision was between Rice, Spiller and Charles. Since he's my keeper in the family league, I figure I might as well go all-in on Spiller this year. While I think Rice still has plenty to give, his best years are most likely behind him at this point. That leaves Spiller and Charles, two guys in new systems with ridiculous quicks and insane yards per carry averages. In the end, I like Spiller better because, last year, he produced more fantasy points than Charles on fewer touches and was more consistent. And his new coordinator wants to feed him the ball as much as he can.
I like MJD as a high-end number 2 RB this year. I think he's healthy and still has the ability to just pile up stats as perhaps the only reliable weapon on his team. I was tempted by the likes of Dez Bryant, but I felt that there were enough top-tier wideouts left and a pretty big dropoff after MJD at RB. I lucked out and managed to still land Marshall after waiting 8 picks.
Next up, I was deciding between Peyton and Gronk. I felt that Peyton had fallen too far and wouldn't make it back to me at the next pick, but I at least had a shot at Gronk doing so. Unfortunately, I missed out on Gronk by 2 picks, so I took Colston, a top receiver on a powerful passing offense. I would be surprised if he made it inside the top 10. I would also be surprised if he fell outside the top 20, assuming he's mostly healthy throughout the year. While he can be boom and bust week-to-week, I think his overall production is as reliable as it comes.
Approaching the next turn, I had 3 WRs and 3 RBs left in their respective tiers, so I looked at the guys between my next two picks and noticed that many of them still needed tons of help at WR. So I grabbed Bowe first and managed to still land Mathews on the way back. It's strategic moves like this that make snake drafts at least somewhat interesting. Both of these guys are kind of "has-beens" but have shown great things in the preseason, and still have the ability AND opportunity to be top-10 guys at their respective positions. I'll take that out of my 3rd WR and RB in a shallow ten-teamer.
Regarding the rest of the draft, once again, I waited the shit out of TE having missed Gronk. I knew I was never going to get Graham, since that takes a second round pick this year. In terms of value, I think that's a bad move, as it would take a historic TE season to justify that draft position. However, I like Gronk around the 4th round, because he scores more points per game than Graham and I think he is well on his way to a mid-September return to full-speed. So rather than reaching on any other TE, I just took whoever was available when I felt it was time to grab a TE. I like Witten and Gonzalez and the potential of Vernon Davis, but those guys are going too high as well. After those guys, all the Greg Olsens, Owen Daniels, Kyle Rudolphs and Jared Cooks are all the same to me, so I'm fine getting Cook.
Normally, I would say that anyone who takes a defense before the second to last round is a total fantasy n00b. I broke my golden rule this year. Frankly, in a 10-team league, everyone's team is stacked with talent at all the offensive positions and there is always plenty to find on the waiver-wire, so I think that getting a better defense might help me out. I like that the Jets, Dophins and Bills all have terrible QB situations, meaning plenty of opportunities for the Pats D to capitalize and put up good scores.
Overall, there's only 2 or 3 teams I can look at and say that I would much rather have my team than theirs. Everyone else is pretty strong across the board. Such is life in a ten-team league. Looking at draft results is kind of boring. I was hoping to get to 12 strong, but it wasn't to be. We'll see how this one plays out. It should be fun, anyway.
Tuesday, August 27, 2013
Bockmed's Family League
It's time to pwn the family again. It's a 12 team, standard scoring, 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1Flex, 1K, 1DST, 6BN, snake draft league with 1 keeper kept at one round higher than where you took them last year. I got to keep C.J. Spiller in the 6th round and the 3rd overall pick. It's on like Donkey Kong.
My Team:
My Team:
QB: Matthew Stafford
RB: Arian Foster
RB: C.J. Spiller
WR: Reggie Wayne
WR: Roddy White
TE: Jordan Cameron
Flex: Frank Gore
K: Josh Brown
DST: Tampa Bay
BN: Hakeem Nicks
BN: Cecil Shorts
BN: Fred Jackson
BN: Sidney Rice
BN: Pierre Thomas
BN: Malcom Floyd
What I love about this team:
-My runningbacks! There are certainly concerns with all of them. But really, find me a single runningback not named Adrian Peterson who you know is going to be healthy all year and isn't going to have anyone cutting into their workload. And AD has been hurt before, too. Arian has some definite injury concerns, but considering what was left, I had to take him. The potential to be the number one guy in fantasy is definitely there and Kubiak says he's going to be fine, so my fingers are crossed. C.J. Spiller is going to "run until he pukes" according to his OC. I think they'll be smart with him and he stays healthy and has a monster year. Gore is the centerpiece of his offense, and admittedly on the decline. But in the third round, I am not about to pass on a productive starting runningback. Fred Jackson and Pierre Thomas will both have a role this year and could be fairly useful if someone ahead of them loses their jobs, providing me with all the depth I need at the position.
-My receiving corps should be nice and steady. Both starters get a high volume of catches. I think Roddy is good for 1300 yds 8 TDs and Reggie will regress to something like 1150 and 5, which is still pretty solid. Hakeem is fragile, but an explosive playmaker who could turn into tradebait if he returns to his former glory. Cecil could be awesome if his QB shows some improvement. Sidney and Malcom are just guys really. They'll probably be the first to get dropped when something shiny pops up on the waiver wire. But who knows, they've both shown flashes before.
Dislikes: I missed out on a reliable TE, so I waited and waited and grabbed someone who people are raving about. Honestly, there isn't too much I don't like about this team, so that's what I came up with.
I just kept finding value in this draft, and so I have awesome depth at WR and RB, a QB who could approach 5000 yds and ought to throw for more TDs this year, and a frankly, considering how same all the TEs are after the first 2, who really cares who I have in there?
There are a handful of teams that could pop and dominate if their players turn out, but I don't think any have the caliber of flex player that I do or the overall depth. I'm pretty excited for the prospects in this league this year.
Sunday, August 25, 2013
Cheap League
Earlier today (August 24th) I had the draft for my cheapest league. It is a 12 team, $20 buy-in, 0.5 point PPR, snake draft, 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1Flex, 1K, 1DST, 6BN. This league is a "keeper league" in the sense that each manager keeps only one player from the year before at one draft round better than the previous season. Two years ago, I drafted Demarco Murray on a whim in the 11th round. With Felix Jones getting hurt that season, I kept him last year in the 10th round and this year in the 9th. This might seem like an epic bargain, but the reality is that each team in this league has one player of similar value at a ridiculous round. (This is often the case with taking a stab at rookie players.) My team:
QB: Cam Newton
RB: David Wilson
RB: Demarco Murray
WR: Calvin Johnson
WR: Andre Johnson
TE: Jared Cook
Flex: Eric Decker
K: Matt Prater
DST: St. Louis
BN: Josh Freeman
BN: Chris Ivory
BN: Andre Brown
BN: Mike Williams
BN: Justin Blackmon
BN: Zach Sudfeld
What I love about this draft:
-My receiving corps is unbelievable. Calvin has the potential to go 10/140/2 each week. Granted, he won't do that all season, but you have to love the best receiver in a pass-heavy system.
-I scored Cam Newton in the 5th round. I'm a firm believer that - this year especially - one should not reach on a quarterback. The disparity between the best QB and the 12th-best QB isn't nearly as great as the best at other positions and the last starter at other said positions. Nonetheless, I watched as round-by-round all of the "big name" quarterbacks went off the board but Cam stayed put. He was actually my #1 QB on my board in PPR format. If he rushes a ton this year, he could be an absolute steal.
-Justin Blackmon. Sure, he's suspended for a few games. But when he comes back? If Henne replaces Gabbert, defenses will have to plan around MJD (on a contract year) and Cecil Shorts coming off of a breakout 2012 campaign. This could open up the field for Blackmon and he could be an elite receiver.
-Sudfeld. See my prior post.
Dislikes:
-My running back corps. Demarco is sure to get a lot of receptions, but will he stay healthy all year? Who knows. David Wilson has so much potential (he had a heck of a game tonight) but what happens when the Giants get to the goal line? How many goal line TDs will be sniped by Andre Brown? Sure I also drafted Brown (mostly as insurance) but I'm not going to do a committee in my backfield. Ivory is a nice piece because he is a starter and will get plenty of touches, but it's the Jets offense and he is unproven as a the sole guy. I like that he gives me flexibility in the event that Demarco gets hurt and/or the Giants go committee, but still, no one wants Ivory to have to start week-in and week-out.
-Andre Johnson. He's getting old. Can he still be productive? He had a great season last year in terms of receptions and yardage, but he rarely found the end zone. Can he turn that around? Who knows. I'm fortunate to have a ton of depth at WR, so if AJ gets hurt I can integrate Decker/Williams/Blackmon more consistently. Still, I took him high in the draft. At that spot, you want your players to turn out.
Looking at the starting lineups of other managers in this league, I really like how my team turned out. If I avoid the injury bug, this could be a solid unit that will be a force to be reckoned with in the playoffs.
Empire League
Well, it's that time of year again.
FANTASY FOOTBALL.
Last night (Friday, August 23rd) I had my first draft of the year. It was for my "Empire League." This league is a $100 buy-in. There are 12 teams, standard scoring, auction draft, 1QB 2RB 2WR 1Flex 1TE 1K 1DST 6BN.
Unlike other leagues, at the end of the season, only half the pot is paid out. 1st: $350 2nd: $150 3rd: $100. The other half of the buy-in goes to the "empire pot." In order to win the "empire pot" a manager must win in back-to-back seasons. Hence, the minimum the "empire pot" can be is $1,200 assuming that the same manager wins the championship in both year 1 and year 2. (For example, if no one wins back-to-back until year 9 and year 10, the "empire pot" is worth $6,000!)
Part of the strategy of this league is drafting a winning roster. The other part is drafting young players that are skilled and can lead your team in the future.
My team shook out as follows: (the age of the player is included in parentheses)
QB: Matt Schaub (32)
RB: CJ Spiller (26)
RB: Eddie Lacy (22)
WR: Larry Fitzgerald (29)
WR: Randall Cobb (22)
TE: Jimmy Graham (26)
F: Torrey Smith (24)
K: Dan Bailey (who cares)
DST: New England (irrelevant)
BN: Josh Freeman (25)
BN: Chris Ivory (25)
BN: Jonathan Franklin (23)
BN: Kenny Britt (24)
BN: Rueben Randle (22)
BN: Zach Sudfeld (24)
Will this team win this year? Probably not. Do I have a young core to contend consistently for the next 3 to 5 years? Absolutely.
Notes about the draft:
Originally, I wanted to target Trent Richardson as my franchise player. He is just 22, an elite running back, and presumably has many years ahead of him as the starter in Cleveland. CJ Spiller was nominated about 6th overall, and I had him going for about $57 on my board. As the bidding slowed down, I kept bidding on him because he was being undervalued. Suddenly the bidding stopped altogether and I got him for $49. It was at that point that I had to readjust my drafting strategy (and budget) entirely. I suddenly shifted from being able to afford a crappy tight end to having enough money to draft the best tight end possible.
I had no interest in drafting Larry Fitzgerald, but he was another instance in which the bidding suddenly stopped and I was stuck with a player going for strong value. Am I high on Fitz? No. Do I think he will do better with Palmer as QB? Yes. Was he worth the $23 I paid for him? No doubt about it.
What I love about this draft:
-I love that I have great bench depth. Ivory is a viable bye-week filler, and if Lacy (or Franklin) don't pan out, at least I have a majority-of-the-touches running back to fill in. Britt was an absolute steal at $4, and he could easily compete with Torrey to be my starter at flex. If Britt is finally healthy and lives up to his potential, I could have a very dynamic receiving corps.
-Zach Sudfeld. I'm so high on this guy. If Gronk is injured for the foreseeable future, Sudfeld will get all of the reps at TE and could put up huge numbers. Even if Gronk is healthy, Sudfeld has been so impressive in pre-season that there are rumors that the Patriots may be going to two-tight end sets to include him in the passing game. Sudfeld could absolutely be a key player for my team.
Dislikes:
-Rueben Randle. Will he emerge as a viable threat? Who knows. I'm basically banking on Nicks being hurt as some point in the season.
-The Schaub/Freeman carousel. I knew going in that quarterbacks would be way over valued. (Rodgers went for $69(!!!!) and Brees, Brady, and Manning all for $40+. Just incredible.) For this reason, I chose to wait it out, get good core players later, and take a lower-level QB. Both Schaub and Freeman are viable starters, but they won't put up game-changing numbers.
I don't view this as a championship-contending team in 2013. But could it win back-to-back seasons sometime within the 2014 - 2017 time frame? Barring injuries, I think it is plausible. Here's to hoping.
FANTASY FOOTBALL.
Last night (Friday, August 23rd) I had my first draft of the year. It was for my "Empire League." This league is a $100 buy-in. There are 12 teams, standard scoring, auction draft, 1QB 2RB 2WR 1Flex 1TE 1K 1DST 6BN.
Unlike other leagues, at the end of the season, only half the pot is paid out. 1st: $350 2nd: $150 3rd: $100. The other half of the buy-in goes to the "empire pot." In order to win the "empire pot" a manager must win in back-to-back seasons. Hence, the minimum the "empire pot" can be is $1,200 assuming that the same manager wins the championship in both year 1 and year 2. (For example, if no one wins back-to-back until year 9 and year 10, the "empire pot" is worth $6,000!)
Part of the strategy of this league is drafting a winning roster. The other part is drafting young players that are skilled and can lead your team in the future.
My team shook out as follows: (the age of the player is included in parentheses)
QB: Matt Schaub (32)
RB: CJ Spiller (26)
RB: Eddie Lacy (22)
WR: Larry Fitzgerald (29)
WR: Randall Cobb (22)
TE: Jimmy Graham (26)
F: Torrey Smith (24)
K: Dan Bailey (who cares)
DST: New England (irrelevant)
BN: Josh Freeman (25)
BN: Chris Ivory (25)
BN: Jonathan Franklin (23)
BN: Kenny Britt (24)
BN: Rueben Randle (22)
BN: Zach Sudfeld (24)
Will this team win this year? Probably not. Do I have a young core to contend consistently for the next 3 to 5 years? Absolutely.
Notes about the draft:
Originally, I wanted to target Trent Richardson as my franchise player. He is just 22, an elite running back, and presumably has many years ahead of him as the starter in Cleveland. CJ Spiller was nominated about 6th overall, and I had him going for about $57 on my board. As the bidding slowed down, I kept bidding on him because he was being undervalued. Suddenly the bidding stopped altogether and I got him for $49. It was at that point that I had to readjust my drafting strategy (and budget) entirely. I suddenly shifted from being able to afford a crappy tight end to having enough money to draft the best tight end possible.
I had no interest in drafting Larry Fitzgerald, but he was another instance in which the bidding suddenly stopped and I was stuck with a player going for strong value. Am I high on Fitz? No. Do I think he will do better with Palmer as QB? Yes. Was he worth the $23 I paid for him? No doubt about it.
What I love about this draft:
-I love that I have great bench depth. Ivory is a viable bye-week filler, and if Lacy (or Franklin) don't pan out, at least I have a majority-of-the-touches running back to fill in. Britt was an absolute steal at $4, and he could easily compete with Torrey to be my starter at flex. If Britt is finally healthy and lives up to his potential, I could have a very dynamic receiving corps.
-Zach Sudfeld. I'm so high on this guy. If Gronk is injured for the foreseeable future, Sudfeld will get all of the reps at TE and could put up huge numbers. Even if Gronk is healthy, Sudfeld has been so impressive in pre-season that there are rumors that the Patriots may be going to two-tight end sets to include him in the passing game. Sudfeld could absolutely be a key player for my team.
Dislikes:
-Rueben Randle. Will he emerge as a viable threat? Who knows. I'm basically banking on Nicks being hurt as some point in the season.
-The Schaub/Freeman carousel. I knew going in that quarterbacks would be way over valued. (Rodgers went for $69(!!!!) and Brees, Brady, and Manning all for $40+. Just incredible.) For this reason, I chose to wait it out, get good core players later, and take a lower-level QB. Both Schaub and Freeman are viable starters, but they won't put up game-changing numbers.
I don't view this as a championship-contending team in 2013. But could it win back-to-back seasons sometime within the 2014 - 2017 time frame? Barring injuries, I think it is plausible. Here's to hoping.
Friday, August 9, 2013
I didn't know I was looking,
but I found the best cat videos on the interwebs. Really good production value on these bitches.
Tuesday, August 6, 2013
Monday, June 17, 2013
For those of you who aren't gigantic nerds,
last week was E3, the Electronic Entertainment Expo. It's a huge event held in L.A. every summer, and historically, it's the event where Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo reveal their new consoles and all of the publishers talk about their upcoming games. For me, it was a week of watching streams on twitch.tv and video game trailers on Youtube.
If you've been on Reddit in the last week, you probably saw lots of posts praising Sony and the Playstation 4, and lots hating on Microsoft and the Xbox One (which I think is a pretty shitty name for what it's worth). This is because Microsoft is forcing you to connect to the internet at least once every 24 hours as a DRM feature. This has a lot of people pissed/baffled because even if you only play offline single-player games, you still have to have an internet connection to play them. And while Microsoft was saying, "fuck you, if you don't like it, buy an Xbox 360," Sony was saying all the right things (and taking some shots at Microsoft) and brought in a console that has better hardware and costs $100 less than the Xbone. None of this really matters to me because PC Master Race.
What I was most excited for was the game releases. There were a few that I'm pretty excited for. The game that probably caught the most buzz was Titanfall. This is a game that is being developed by the former heads of Infinity Ward, the developer that made COD4: Modern Warfare, the best game in the COD series, and the game that 90% of first person shooters have been trying to copy for the last 6 years (including all the ensuing COD games). It's a game that involves playing as the pilot of a mech as well as outside the mech with all kinds of crazy jetpack parkour. Basically, it looks like a crazy, fun, fast-paced game and the best part is that it's not a sequel. In other awesomeness, the game that gave me the hardest boner was merely teased in a 30 second trailer, but oh my god, this is basically what I've been wet dreaming about for a couple of years now. That's right, Star Wars: Battlefront is being rebooted and is under development by DICE. I can't even tell you how many times I played through the original Battlefront game on Playstation 2, and to this day I still play Battlefront 2 with a couple of my buddies (usually paired with a stiff rum and coke). But what makes me most excited is who is making the game. DICE is the maker of Battlefield and for a decade now, they have been a leader in gaming technology. Their Frostbite 3 game engine is probably the best game engine in terms of physics, environment destruction, particle effects and lighting. Battlefield 3, a 2 year old game, is still considered to be among the games with the best graphics. Basically, I'm super excited to see what they can do with an amazing game concept with amazing graphics. I wouldn't be surprised if Battlefront is game of the year when it comes out a couple of years from now. While there were some other cool games in the adventure and rpg genres, I'm not going to go on and on about them. And I'm not going to go into EA Sports' 'incredible' new dribbling technology. Finally, there was one game that had me soaking up every tidbit of information I could find, and that was Battlefield 4. Those of you who know me know that I play a craptonne of Battlefield 3, so of course I'm going to be interested in this particular sequel. What DICE did at E3 was pretty awesome. They set up 66 gaming PCs (!) at their "booth" and let convention goers play a round of the multiplayer while they streamed the whole thing and had commentators use the new spectator mode feature to show off the gameplay. They also had a few competitive players and big-name Youtubers on to do interviews. Basically, it looks like they're bringing in a lot of the features that BF3 players have been asking for. They're bringing back the Commander position from previous titles like BF2 and BF: 2142. The commander is something that one player on the server can volunteer to be. As commander, they get an overview of the map and try to organize the team into an effective combat unit by giving squads different attack and defend orders. The commander also has the ability to do things like call in artillery strikes and drop supplies for the people on the ground. In addition to bringing back the commander, they've upped the squad size from 4 to 5 players and made several other gameplay tweaks, such as increasing the destructibility of levels (seriously, you can bring down a skyscraper) that people have been asking for. While some people are bitching "hurr durr it's the same game, why isn't this DLC, this is just Battlefield 3.5," I'm just glad that they're making some good tweaks to an already great game, and I'll happily pay full price and get it day one. Considering how many hours I've put into BF3, I know it'll be money well spent.
TL:DR
E3 was last week. Here's what happened:
If you've been on Reddit in the last week, you probably saw lots of posts praising Sony and the Playstation 4, and lots hating on Microsoft and the Xbox One (which I think is a pretty shitty name for what it's worth). This is because Microsoft is forcing you to connect to the internet at least once every 24 hours as a DRM feature. This has a lot of people pissed/baffled because even if you only play offline single-player games, you still have to have an internet connection to play them. And while Microsoft was saying, "fuck you, if you don't like it, buy an Xbox 360," Sony was saying all the right things (and taking some shots at Microsoft) and brought in a console that has better hardware and costs $100 less than the Xbone. None of this really matters to me because PC Master Race.
What I was most excited for was the game releases. There were a few that I'm pretty excited for. The game that probably caught the most buzz was Titanfall. This is a game that is being developed by the former heads of Infinity Ward, the developer that made COD4: Modern Warfare, the best game in the COD series, and the game that 90% of first person shooters have been trying to copy for the last 6 years (including all the ensuing COD games). It's a game that involves playing as the pilot of a mech as well as outside the mech with all kinds of crazy jetpack parkour. Basically, it looks like a crazy, fun, fast-paced game and the best part is that it's not a sequel. In other awesomeness, the game that gave me the hardest boner was merely teased in a 30 second trailer, but oh my god, this is basically what I've been wet dreaming about for a couple of years now. That's right, Star Wars: Battlefront is being rebooted and is under development by DICE. I can't even tell you how many times I played through the original Battlefront game on Playstation 2, and to this day I still play Battlefront 2 with a couple of my buddies (usually paired with a stiff rum and coke). But what makes me most excited is who is making the game. DICE is the maker of Battlefield and for a decade now, they have been a leader in gaming technology. Their Frostbite 3 game engine is probably the best game engine in terms of physics, environment destruction, particle effects and lighting. Battlefield 3, a 2 year old game, is still considered to be among the games with the best graphics. Basically, I'm super excited to see what they can do with an amazing game concept with amazing graphics. I wouldn't be surprised if Battlefront is game of the year when it comes out a couple of years from now. While there were some other cool games in the adventure and rpg genres, I'm not going to go on and on about them. And I'm not going to go into EA Sports' 'incredible' new dribbling technology. Finally, there was one game that had me soaking up every tidbit of information I could find, and that was Battlefield 4. Those of you who know me know that I play a craptonne of Battlefield 3, so of course I'm going to be interested in this particular sequel. What DICE did at E3 was pretty awesome. They set up 66 gaming PCs (!) at their "booth" and let convention goers play a round of the multiplayer while they streamed the whole thing and had commentators use the new spectator mode feature to show off the gameplay. They also had a few competitive players and big-name Youtubers on to do interviews. Basically, it looks like they're bringing in a lot of the features that BF3 players have been asking for. They're bringing back the Commander position from previous titles like BF2 and BF: 2142. The commander is something that one player on the server can volunteer to be. As commander, they get an overview of the map and try to organize the team into an effective combat unit by giving squads different attack and defend orders. The commander also has the ability to do things like call in artillery strikes and drop supplies for the people on the ground. In addition to bringing back the commander, they've upped the squad size from 4 to 5 players and made several other gameplay tweaks, such as increasing the destructibility of levels (seriously, you can bring down a skyscraper) that people have been asking for. While some people are bitching "hurr durr it's the same game, why isn't this DLC, this is just Battlefield 3.5," I'm just glad that they're making some good tweaks to an already great game, and I'll happily pay full price and get it day one. Considering how many hours I've put into BF3, I know it'll be money well spent.
TL:DR
E3 was last week. Here's what happened:
Sunday, June 2, 2013
WHAT THIS BLOG REALLY NEEDS
I recently adopted a cat (well..."recent" in terms of "blog update recent") and have found great things to do with him. I mainly post videos on Facebook, but this one was just too gosh darn controversial to post.
Is it animal cruelty? Or the greatest use of a cat ever? I'll let you decide.
Presenting: Superman cat
Is it animal cruelty? Or the greatest use of a cat ever? I'll let you decide.
Presenting: Superman cat
The Silly Adventures of Mr. Mochi
It's been over a month since anyone has posted to the blog. I kind of feel like we need a really strong post to get this thing back on its feet again.
Yup.
Yup.
Thursday, April 25, 2013
Draft Day Predictions
The first round of the NFL draft is tonight, and I'd like to offer up a few predictions. I think it's safe to say that this will be one of the most active NFL drafts in history and numerous teams will be trading up and down for positional purposes. Spielman loves to be active on draft day, and I don't see him staying put in this draft. That being said, the draft isn't as deep as it has been in previous years. There is no real "go to" guy to be drafted, and for that reason the draft may develop organically and some teams may choose to keep their current draft positions solely because some players may slip to them. To be frank, a rated #8 overall on one team could easily be rated #25 on another. With the exception of the first few lineman, the difference between the 10th best player and the 25th best player is fairly minimal. The real difference is position, not talent or potential.
Thus, I see all three draft-day scenarios for the Vikings being completely plausible (trade up, keep current picks, trade down). I think making a trade of some sort is slightly more plausible than just keeping our two picks. Here is my best guess:
Scenario 1: Trade Up (Probability: 40%)
The Chargers have been quite candid that they aren't too concerned with moving up and may move down in the draft. They have a pressing need for an offensive lineman, but have admitted that they think the field of offensive lineman is so deep this year that they will just draft the best player that falls to them. There will be a number of second-tier O-Lineman still on the board in the board in the pick #18-25 range of the draft. Thus, I see the Vikings packaging a deal with the Chargers (the Dolphins and Saints are lesser possibilities here, too) sending the #23 pick and a our 2nd (or 3rd if negotiations go well) for the rights to the #11 (or the #12/#15 if we go with Miami/New Orleans instead) overall pick.
At #11 I see only three possibilities: Chance Warmack, Dee Milliner, and Tavon Austin. I think Dee Milliner will be off the board by then, I think this is reaching for Warmack a bit, and this would be perfect for Tavon Austin if the Jets haven't already drafted him (and if Saint Louis hasn't moved up to take him as well.)
My prediction: We take the safe route and draft Chase Warmack.
With #25 I see us either taking Manti Te'o or Cordarrelle Patterson.
My prediction: We take Manti Te'o.
Scenario 2: Trade Down (Probability: 40%)
With the new collective bargaining agreement in place, teams that draft a Quarterback in the first round are allowed to place an option on the 5th year of a rookie contract. This is huge considering it is the most important position in all of football. As such, I see the Vikings keeping their #23 pick and trading away the #25.
At #23 I see us again with 3 choices: Desmond Trufant, Bjoern Werner, and Sheldon Richardson. My prediction: we go with Bjoern Werner as the presumptive Jared Allen replacement.
If Buffalo does not take Nassib with their pick, they will trade with the Vikes for his rights at #25. Philadelphia could do this with Geno Smith. Jacksonville could do this with Matt Barkley. We would presumably gain their 2nd round pick and perhaps a 4th rounder as well.
Scenario 3: Keep both picks (Probability: 20%)
At #23 I think we consider Werner, Trufant, and a receiver. My prediction: we take Cordarrelle Patterson. The security of a pick almost immediately afterwards means we can then focus on defense.
At #25 we really have three options: best LB available (Te'o), best DL available (Werner/Richardson), best CB available (Trufant). My guess is we will go with Te'o because Werner may be off the board and Trufant isn't as safe of a pick as Te'o.
That being said: who knows. It will be an interesting night. Theoretically we could even trade up (get rid of #23 and 2nd rounder for the rights to a top 12 pick) and then trade down (get rid of #25 for a different 2nd rounder and say a 4th rounder). Who knows. It'll be a fun night for football fans.
Thus, I see all three draft-day scenarios for the Vikings being completely plausible (trade up, keep current picks, trade down). I think making a trade of some sort is slightly more plausible than just keeping our two picks. Here is my best guess:
Scenario 1: Trade Up (Probability: 40%)
The Chargers have been quite candid that they aren't too concerned with moving up and may move down in the draft. They have a pressing need for an offensive lineman, but have admitted that they think the field of offensive lineman is so deep this year that they will just draft the best player that falls to them. There will be a number of second-tier O-Lineman still on the board in the board in the pick #18-25 range of the draft. Thus, I see the Vikings packaging a deal with the Chargers (the Dolphins and Saints are lesser possibilities here, too) sending the #23 pick and a our 2nd (or 3rd if negotiations go well) for the rights to the #11 (or the #12/#15 if we go with Miami/New Orleans instead) overall pick.
At #11 I see only three possibilities: Chance Warmack, Dee Milliner, and Tavon Austin. I think Dee Milliner will be off the board by then, I think this is reaching for Warmack a bit, and this would be perfect for Tavon Austin if the Jets haven't already drafted him (and if Saint Louis hasn't moved up to take him as well.)
My prediction: We take the safe route and draft Chase Warmack.
With #25 I see us either taking Manti Te'o or Cordarrelle Patterson.
My prediction: We take Manti Te'o.
Scenario 2: Trade Down (Probability: 40%)
With the new collective bargaining agreement in place, teams that draft a Quarterback in the first round are allowed to place an option on the 5th year of a rookie contract. This is huge considering it is the most important position in all of football. As such, I see the Vikings keeping their #23 pick and trading away the #25.
At #23 I see us again with 3 choices: Desmond Trufant, Bjoern Werner, and Sheldon Richardson. My prediction: we go with Bjoern Werner as the presumptive Jared Allen replacement.
If Buffalo does not take Nassib with their pick, they will trade with the Vikes for his rights at #25. Philadelphia could do this with Geno Smith. Jacksonville could do this with Matt Barkley. We would presumably gain their 2nd round pick and perhaps a 4th rounder as well.
Scenario 3: Keep both picks (Probability: 20%)
At #23 I think we consider Werner, Trufant, and a receiver. My prediction: we take Cordarrelle Patterson. The security of a pick almost immediately afterwards means we can then focus on defense.
At #25 we really have three options: best LB available (Te'o), best DL available (Werner/Richardson), best CB available (Trufant). My guess is we will go with Te'o because Werner may be off the board and Trufant isn't as safe of a pick as Te'o.
That being said: who knows. It will be an interesting night. Theoretically we could even trade up (get rid of #23 and 2nd rounder for the rights to a top 12 pick) and then trade down (get rid of #25 for a different 2nd rounder and say a 4th rounder). Who knows. It'll be a fun night for football fans.
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