Draft Day Predictions

The first round of the NFL draft is tonight, and I'd like to offer up a few predictions. I think it's safe to say that this will be one of the most active NFL drafts in history and numerous teams will be trading up and down for positional purposes. Spielman loves to be active on draft day, and I don't see him staying put in this draft. That being said, the draft isn't as deep as it has been in previous years. There is no real "go to" guy to be drafted, and for that reason the draft may develop organically and some teams may choose to keep their current draft positions solely because some players may slip to them. To be frank, a rated #8 overall on one team could easily be rated #25 on another. With the exception of the first few lineman, the difference between the 10th best player and the 25th best player is fairly minimal. The real difference is position, not talent or potential.

Thus, I see all three draft-day scenarios for the Vikings being completely plausible (trade up, keep current picks, trade down). I think making a trade of some sort is slightly more plausible than just keeping our two picks. Here is my best guess:

Scenario 1: Trade Up (Probability: 40%)
The Chargers have been quite candid that they aren't too concerned with moving up and may move down in the draft. They have a pressing need for an offensive lineman, but have admitted that they think the field of offensive lineman is so deep this year that they will just draft the best player that falls to them. There will be a number of second-tier O-Lineman still on the board in the board in the pick #18-25 range of the draft. Thus, I see the Vikings packaging a deal with the Chargers (the Dolphins and Saints are lesser possibilities here, too) sending the #23 pick and a our 2nd (or 3rd if negotiations go well) for the rights to the #11 (or the #12/#15 if we go with Miami/New Orleans instead) overall pick.

At #11 I see only three possibilities: Chance Warmack, Dee Milliner, and Tavon Austin. I think Dee Milliner will be off the board by then, I think this is reaching for Warmack a bit, and this would be perfect for Tavon Austin if the Jets haven't already drafted him (and if Saint Louis hasn't moved up to take him as well.)

My prediction: We take the safe route and draft Chase Warmack.

With #25 I see us either taking Manti Te'o or Cordarrelle Patterson.

My prediction: We take Manti Te'o.

Scenario 2: Trade Down (Probability: 40%)
With the new collective bargaining agreement in place, teams that draft a Quarterback in the first round are allowed to place an option on the 5th year of a rookie contract. This is huge considering it is the most important position in all of football. As such, I see the Vikings keeping their #23 pick and trading away the #25.

At #23 I see us again with 3 choices: Desmond Trufant, Bjoern Werner, and Sheldon Richardson. My prediction: we go with Bjoern Werner as the presumptive Jared Allen replacement.

If Buffalo does not take Nassib with their pick, they will trade with the Vikes for his rights at #25. Philadelphia could do this with Geno Smith. Jacksonville could do this with Matt Barkley. We would presumably gain their 2nd round pick and perhaps a 4th rounder as well.

Scenario 3: Keep both picks (Probability: 20%)

At #23 I think we consider Werner, Trufant, and a receiver. My prediction: we take Cordarrelle Patterson. The security of a pick almost immediately afterwards means we can then focus on defense.

At #25 we really have three options: best LB available (Te'o), best DL available (Werner/Richardson), best CB available (Trufant). My guess is we will go with Te'o because Werner may be off the board and Trufant isn't as safe of a pick as Te'o.

That being said: who knows. It will be an interesting night. Theoretically we could even trade up (get rid of #23 and 2nd rounder for the rights to a top 12 pick) and then trade down (get rid of #25 for a different 2nd rounder and say a 4th rounder). Who knows. It'll be a fun night for football fans.