After seeing Ahmed's post, I was reminded that I had intended to update on my fantasy football season every three or four weeks. So this is one of those.
Team 1: 1-2, 9th out of twelve, $20 buy-in
At first glance, it would appear that I have little more than an outside shot at three-peating as champion of the family feud league. But I'm right in there for points for and have the second most points against. If Ben Roethlisberger could stop putting the ball in the hands of the defense and I had any semblance of a TE I'd be doing just fine. This past week, my team made a pretty big improvement when, lo and behold, a trade offer appeared! I was offered Hakeem Nicks and Arian Foster for Fred Jackson and Jerome Harrison. Without hesitation, I hit accept. A while later my conscience was all like "dude, I know he offered you that deal, but, c'mon, that's just not fair." After some discussion with my trade partner, it is apparent that he is aware of how much potential he gave up, but desperately needed points now. Ok. I currently am shopping my now amazing RB and WR depth (I now have McCoy, Bradshaw, Jacobs and Foster at RB and White, V. Jackson, Nicks, and Holmes at WR) to upgrade at QB and TE. Things could really be looking up for this team if Foster becomes even 80% of the Foster he was last year and some other guys start to reach their potential.
Team 2: 2-1, 5th of 12, $10 buy-in
It breaks my heart to see Ahmed's team suck so bad. If it weren't for a metric shit-ton of injuries, I'd probably be in 2nd or 3rd, but hey. Drew Brees and Andre Johnson are definitely carrying this team. For the last week or two Knowshon Moreno, Dez Bryant, Mario Manningham, have all been out or questionable. It sucks when three guys you expected to be the core of your team are all un-startable. It leads to things like starting Mike Tolbert when he doesn't do anything after week 1 and Joseph Addai having a good week against the Steelers while on my bench. At least Vernon Davis finally got some looks in San Fran. I'm still pretty confident about this team. I just need my guys to heal up and maybe trade for a reliable RB. Although I don't think I have the depth to make that really viable. I'm also really glad I drafted Eric Decker. I'm thinking he'll be kept for a number of years.
Tuesday, September 27, 2011
blog the blog
Well, believe it or not I am actually at work right now. I got really bored and decided to write a blog post. I’m not sure when I’ll post it, but you can be assured that this was definitely written on company time.
Fantasy football has been a mix of good and bad this season. I’ll briefly recap my 4 teams I highlighted earlier in the year.
Team 1: 3-0, first place (out of twelve), $10 buy-in.
There’s really very little to say other than this team is being single-handedly carried week-in and week-out by Tom Brady. Daniel Thomas has emerged as a nice replacement for Peyton Hillis (who was sick last week) and very well may end up replacing BJGE for the rest of the season if he keeps putting up these kinds of numbers. It’s a ½ point PPR league and the Johnsons—Andre and Stevie—have been doing well. Brandon Marshall may not have ridiculous numbers thus far, but he is getting plenty of targets to keep him as a starter. If he falters, I have Devery Henderson and/or Mike Thomas to replace him (both have been having good years thus far and make a viable flex option). It’s nice when you’re forced to choose between benching Daniel Thomas and The Law Firm every week. My depth is solid: Flacco has had some amazing games and Woodhead/The Law Firm make for formidable running back depth. Overall, I’m excited for what the rest of the year will bring.
Team 2: 2-1, third place (out of twelve), $25 buy-in.
For obvious reasons, I was really worried when Vick had a concussion last week and then a “broken hand” this week. I’ll have to monitor his status, although with Flacco playing the way he has, I’m not too worried if Vick misses some time. I was nervous when Knowshon had injuries of his own, although Ryan Matthews sure has stepped it up and has been a great #2 RB behind McCoy. I also have Daniel Thomas in this league, so my RB depth is amazing. When Dez Bryant went down it gave me obvious concern, but Mike Wallace has carried my receiving corps. Witten is still one of the best TEs in the game. My only reason to worry: I have no depth at WR and 2 share the same bye on week 5. I’m hitting the waiver wire as we speak…
Team 3: 0-3, twelfth place (out of twelve), $10 buy-in.
This league is depressing. It’s with guys that I’ve never played with before (Bockmed included) and I really felt like I had a crappy draft. Players didn’t fall my way and I felt that based on my randomly assigned spot in the draft I missed the tail end of every tier before the snake came back to my position. Ray Rice has been good, but injuries/inconsistencies from EVERY OTHER PLAYER ON MY FREAKING TEAM hasn’t helped whatsoever. My bench sucks because I gambled on CJ Spiller and Pierre Garcon to have favorable situations. Fred Jackson and Peyton Manning have thus far destroyed that gamble. AJ Green has been a nice surprise, although now that I finally decided to start him he decided to start sucking it up. If Matt Ryan, Mike Williams (TB), and Hakeem Nicks start playing like they did last year I might (emphasis on might) have a shot at making the playoffs. Otherwise I have a crappy team with really no one worthy of being kept next season. Good riddance.
Team 4: 1-2, seventh place (out of twelve), $50 buy-in.
This team should be doing so much better. I’ve had consecutive weeks (which I absolutely hate) where I’ve scored more points that basically every other team….with the exception of my opponent. Case in point: I’m 7th by record, but have the 3rd most points of any team in the league. It is a full-point PPR and needless to say McCoy, Andre, and Maclin have done a great job thus far. I’m nervous because it sounds like Maclin may now be out for a game or two, which means I have to start Bess at WR#2. McCoy and Turner are one of the best RB duos in this league, but with Maclin down it means I have to start Daniel Thomas at flex. If he keeps playing like he has the last 2 weeks, I’ll be just fine with this. My downfall has been inconsistency between my TE and QB options. Pettigrew went balls out this last week, but the first two he did very little. Thus far I’ve decided to flip-flop QBs based on who has the better matchup (I have Freeman and Flacco). I started Freeman weeks 1 and 3 and Flacco week 2. For anyone paying attention to fantasy football, you know that Flacco went off weeks 1 and 3 and Freeman had a much better week 2. So basically I keep leaving points on the bench. Hopefully my luck turns around.
Tuesday, September 20, 2011
Friday, September 16, 2011
Saturday, September 10, 2011
fantasy football - draft 4
my fourth and final draft took place on labor day. not to be disrespectful to any of my other leagues, but this one is by far my favorite. this is only the 3rd year i've been in it, but it's hands down the most competitive league i've ever been in (regardless of what sport). it mostly consists of BHS grads 1 or 2 years older than me. it is a little bit different that most leagues in that we start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 FLEX, 1 TE, 1K, 3 IDP. there are 6 bench spots. it is standard scoring except that it is a full point per reception. it is also different because it is an auction draft, not a snake format.
i love auction drafts because there is SO much strategy that needs to be integrated into your draft. beforehand you absolutely must have a good understanding of where you value players. also, with a $200 budget, you have to budget accordingly.
furthermore, as the draft progresses, it literally becomes a "market." as teams fill in certain roster spots, the remaining players can go for ridiculously overpriced (or under-priced) amounts depending on when they are taken.
what i also love about auction drafts is that players are nominated in no particular order. if you have the very first pick of the draft, you can nominate arian foster or tarvaris jackson. whoever you want to start bidding on is fair game. if someone else is willing to pay more they'll bid more. it's really a simple format. i've always been told that the strategy is to nominate someone you don't want for $1 and then let everyone else drive up their price so that they have less money to spend later on. whether or not that seems like a good idea is up to you.
before drafting, i had developed a key strategy. this league has been around since 2001, and yahoo does a cool thing where they "archive" leagues in which the same players have been playing. so you can look at draft results over time. i analyzed trends over a few years. sometimes i analyzed how the top 3 (money winning) teams spent their $200 in the draft. i also analyzed how the top 8 (playoff teams) allocated their funds during draft day. i also examined the drafting strategies of parker and pelkey, who i consider to consistently be the best 2 players. i looked at the average money spent by these different groups and noticed that some trends emerged: lots of money was spent on the 2 WRs and almost always big-time money was spent on their #1 RB. i also noticed--in general--playoff teams did not worry about having a top-tier QB. with this in mind, i developed 2 possible strategies for spending my money during the draft:
basically, these scenarios were really similar. the difference: the extra $10 on your #1WR and #1RB gets you a top-tier guy. i was just going to play it out and see who fell on my team where and then choose which strategy i would follow for the rest of the draft.
one last thing: what i also love about auctions is that, early in the draft, you can find a lot of extremes. sometimes not enough people at a position have gone yet, so you can't gauge if you're getting a steal or a horrible deal. i've also noticed during my analysis on previous drafts, in every case, the team that won somewhere along the way got a great steal at some point during the draft. naturally, a little luck helps as well.
on my cheatsheet, i have 2 values next to each player. the lowest value is what i think a player should go for at minimum. if a player is under this value, i will generally bid on him regardless of whether or not i want him. i do this because 1) if i end up getting him, on my board it is a steal; and 2) if i don't get him, i'm making sure that someone else is spending that extra dollar (or two). it might sound crazy, but when it gets to the very end of the draft, a $2 bid versus a $1 bid is the entire difference between having that key bye-week reserve that squeaks out a victory and losing. in this league (which has the highest entry fee of all i play) that is crucial to me.
3rd person nominated overall: michael turner. i got him for: $26.
in my book, this was a complete steal. i had turner at a low of $27 and a high of $34. that means he went for under what i believed to be his minimum value!!! the first two people nominated were vick and rodgers, so turner was the first RB on the board. i don't know if people were waiting for the top-tier guys, but turner quickly went up to $20. i kept out bidding people one by one and finally i put in a bid for $26. it was crazy, but in the snap of a finger, bidding on him completely stopped. as i watched the time tick down from 3 seconds...2 seconds....1.....i couldn't believe i walked away with him at such value. he has led the league in rushing attempts 2 of the last 3 years so you know he'll get his looks. i love the falcons' offense this year and can't wait for what he has in store for me. at $26, he was only a dollar more expensive than what i wanted to spend on my #2RB. so at this point, i don't know what strategy i'll use yet...
21st person nominated: lesean mccoy. i got him for: $68.
at this point, AP, foster, charles, rice, and even chris johnson had all been nominated and taken. i tried bidding a bit on all of them, but they went over my max value, so i stayed away. but, truthfully: mccoy was my guy for the entire draft. in a full-point PPR league, he is as valuable as anyone. i had him at $71 on my board, so $68 was a steal (and $2 cheaper than what i allocated for my #1RB in scenario 2). at this point, i'm now committed to budgeting for scenario 2 (that's another key for an auction: STAY WITHIN YOUR BUDGET!). since i went over $1 for turner and under $2 for mccoy, i had a surplus of $1 to spend elsewhere. i allocated it towards my #1WR.
31st person nominated: andre johnson. i got him for: $54.
by this point larry, calvin, vincent jackson, and brandon marshall were the only stud WRs taken. i had andre at a max value of $52, but there were no other top guys left on my board, so i felt that i would try to get him. when someone else bid $53, i was really reluctant to bid one more dollar. i decided to go for it and was happy when no one else bid. he's the best WR in the game, i love houston's offense, and i think their improved defense will give the offense more time with the ball. no matter what andre will have a great year, and his targets in a PPR league are invaluable. by over-spending $3 on andre, i had to do some quick adjustments. in scenario 2, instead of spending $30 on my WR2, i allocated only $27 to this position.
47th person nominated overall: tamba hali. i got him for $1.
no IDP player should ever go for more than $1. obviously, i nominated him and got him. his 14.5 sacks last year was amazing and i'm a fan of kansas city's defense. he's one of the best LBs in the game and filled my LB slot.
59th person nominated overall: kerry rhodes. i got him for: $1.
in terms of fantasy points in 2010, he was the most productive in our league. (we do weird IDP scoring, so even though you may think of other DBs in the NFL who are far superior at their position, they may have had less tackles or less passes deflected etc. for whatever reason, rhodes led the DBs in scoring in our system last year. i'll take him for that.)
71st person nominated overall: julius peppers. i got him for $1.
i like the bears' defense. peppers had a pretty good year statistically in 2010. he wasn't the best DL on the board, but for $1....well....you can't get cheaper than that!
79th person nominated overall: jeremy maclin. i got him for $24.
he missed the entire preseason with a viral infection, but everything i had read prior to the draft suggested that he'd be available week #1. the eagles should have a high-scoring offense, and maclin will get plenty of targets. for a #2WR, he's a solid pick and considering that there weren't many good WRs left at this point in the draft, i thought he was great value. i overpaid a little for him, but at that point it was basically between him or mike thomas. read my other post to see how i feel about thomas...by saving $3 on my budget, i allocated that towards my first bench spot. (you might think, "why not towards your flex?" well, at this point in the draft, players start going for really cheap...so i wanted good depth considering at this point i probably could still get my flex guy for the $5 i initially wanted for him.)
83rd person nominated overall: mason crosby. i got him for $1.
i wasn't sure who to nominate because it was the point in the draft where sometimes who you put up for $1 you get. i didn't want to risk getting someone i didn't want and i needed a kicker. based on the green bay game yesterday, crosby may not kick a single field goal this entire year!!! still, they put up 6 extra points...so maybe they will be so high-powered that he'll still be getting me 6-8 points a week. let's hope he's reduced to just field goals when they play the vikings!!
91st person nominated overall: malcom floyd. i got him for $3.
am i high on floyd individually? no. am i high on the chargers' offense as a whole? abso-fricken-lutely. this is where my money i allocated to my first bench spot came in. i don't envision using him as my flex whatsoever, but he'll be a good fill in for one week. he doesn't get a lot of passes thrown his way, but the ones he does catch go for good yardage (and the occasional long-bomb touchdown). rivers will spread the ball, but gates and jackson will always be his primary targets. still, floyd was worth $3 in my book.
138th person nominated: daniel thomas. i got him for $4.
at this point, none of the tight ends left on the board were worth $5. so i figured i could spend more money on my bench players and still get a serviceable TE for only $1. i really needed a backup RB and like i've said before, i like thomas this year. he'll be the goal line option for miami and will get plenty of touches. if bush has another injury, thomas will only increase in value. i'll really only need him for two weeks, so i like this pick.
141st person nominated: josh freeman. i got him for $2.
at long last: my starting QB. statistically, freeman was solid last year: 25 TDs and only 6 INTs. he also had over 300 yards rushing, which is definitely a plus. many analysts/experts in the fantasy football world considered his season a fluke and project he won't come close to those numbers this year. i know tampa will have a tough time making the playoffs with the saints and the falcons in the NFC south, but i do like freeman to at least be a serviceable QB. and considering the trends i examined before the draft--historically in this league--that is all i need him to do. just. be. serviceable.
144th person nominated: michael crabtree. i got him for $2.
this was the only low point of my draft. i actually didn't want crabtree, i was sure someone else would bid him up since (on my board) he was the best WR left and some managers still needed a backup receiver. well, my plan didn't exactly work. i had crabtree on my board for $7 and given the situation thought he'd be eaten up. i don't trust san francisco's offense whatsoever. i think their addition of braylon will help, but crabtree has always had a poor attitude. if this somehow is the year he finally lives up to his college expectations, i will be very happy. unfortunately, i just don't see that happening.
146th person nominated: brandon pettigrew. i got him for $2.
pettigrew was the 2nd best player on my board. (i had zach miller higher). considering miller's new situation and that pettigrew had 70+ receptions last year, i thought i'd take a stab at him. if stafford stays healthy the offense should be solid. i like this pick and found my starting TE.
155th person nominated overall: ronnie brown. i got hiim for $1.
ladies and gentlemen, this is my handcuff. when you invest over one-third of your budget into one guy (mccoy) you sure as heck better invest in his backup in case of an injury!!!
161st person nominated overall: davone bess. i got him for $2.
believe it or not, he was the guy i was targeting the entire draft as my flex. i deliberately chose not to nominate him because i wanted him to fall as far in the draft as possible. this was because a) i didn't want people to know i wanted him; b) i knew he would go for less money the longer i waited; and c) i wanted other managers to have less money so that by the time he actually was nominated i'd be able to get him. my strategy paid off. bess had 76 receptions in '09 and 79 in '10. he's the perfect slot receiver and is projected to get between 11 and 12 points for every game this year. he's not flashy, but he's consistent. in a PPR format wes welker is one of the best WRs in the game. i consider bess and danny amendola to be the "second tier slot receivers." they'll get you points because of their catches, not because of their frequent end zone visits. i love this pickup and can't wait to see him come through for the rest of the year.
164th person nominated overall: joe flacco. i got him for $7.
at this point i had $8 left and 2 positions to fill. i had the most money of anyone left. i really needed a backup QB and flacco was easily the best available. the guy before me had $6 left and bid all $6 on him assuming he could get him. i knew i needed him and bid $7. i like this pickup (even though he went for more than freeman!!) and like i've said in other posts, i'm high on flacco. i imagine i'll be switching between freeman/flacco based on who has the more favorable matchup. again, since history tells me that all i need is a serviceable QB, this is a great strategy to employ.
166th person nominated overall: danny woodhead. i got him for $1.
that was all the money i had left. woodhead is also valuable in a PPR league. i check and saw that he's actually projected to get between about 9 and 12 points a game depending on the matchup. i don't know how he'll be used in new england with their new rookies in town, but he did have a lot of receptions for a RB last year (especially one who didn't really come on to the scene until later in the season). considering i'd only use him a maximum of 2 games, i'm ok with this pick.
lineup:
QB: freeman/flacco (depending on matchup)
WR: johnson
WR: maclin
RB: mccoy
RB: turner
FLEX: bess
TE: pettigrew
K: crosby
DL: peppers
LB: hali
DB: rhodes
BN: thomas
BN: crabtree
BN: brown
BN: floyd
BN: flacco (depending on matchup)
BN: woodhead
i really like this team. week 7 gets a little hectic with some byes, but that happens no matter what you do. i hate to sound arrogant early, but compared to some of the other teams i've assembled, i think this one is a lock for the playoffs. i have some really favorable matchups if i do make the playoffs, so this could be a great year.
that being said, in this league my week one matchup is against a guy who had both greg jennings and jordy nelson starting this week. so i don't expect to overcome a 40-point deficit, but his team was also projected to have the most points over the course of the season. either way, with sunday coming up i just can't wait for fantasy football to be kicked off in full gear. let the games begin!
i love auction drafts because there is SO much strategy that needs to be integrated into your draft. beforehand you absolutely must have a good understanding of where you value players. also, with a $200 budget, you have to budget accordingly.
furthermore, as the draft progresses, it literally becomes a "market." as teams fill in certain roster spots, the remaining players can go for ridiculously overpriced (or under-priced) amounts depending on when they are taken.
what i also love about auction drafts is that players are nominated in no particular order. if you have the very first pick of the draft, you can nominate arian foster or tarvaris jackson. whoever you want to start bidding on is fair game. if someone else is willing to pay more they'll bid more. it's really a simple format. i've always been told that the strategy is to nominate someone you don't want for $1 and then let everyone else drive up their price so that they have less money to spend later on. whether or not that seems like a good idea is up to you.
before drafting, i had developed a key strategy. this league has been around since 2001, and yahoo does a cool thing where they "archive" leagues in which the same players have been playing. so you can look at draft results over time. i analyzed trends over a few years. sometimes i analyzed how the top 3 (money winning) teams spent their $200 in the draft. i also analyzed how the top 8 (playoff teams) allocated their funds during draft day. i also examined the drafting strategies of parker and pelkey, who i consider to consistently be the best 2 players. i looked at the average money spent by these different groups and noticed that some trends emerged: lots of money was spent on the 2 WRs and almost always big-time money was spent on their #1 RB. i also noticed--in general--playoff teams did not worry about having a top-tier QB. with this in mind, i developed 2 possible strategies for spending my money during the draft:
POSITION | SCENARIO #1 | SCENARIO #2 |
QB | 5 | 5 |
WR | 40 | 50 |
WR | 40 | 30 |
RB | 60 | 70 |
RB | 25 | 25 |
TE | 10 | 5 |
FLEX | 8 | 5 |
K | 1 | 1 |
DB | 1 | 1 |
LB | 1 | 1 |
DL | 1 | 1 |
BN | 3 | 1 |
BN | 1 | 1 |
BN | 1 | 1 |
BN | 1 | 1 |
BN | 1 | 1 |
BN | 1 | 1 |
basically, these scenarios were really similar. the difference: the extra $10 on your #1WR and #1RB gets you a top-tier guy. i was just going to play it out and see who fell on my team where and then choose which strategy i would follow for the rest of the draft.
one last thing: what i also love about auctions is that, early in the draft, you can find a lot of extremes. sometimes not enough people at a position have gone yet, so you can't gauge if you're getting a steal or a horrible deal. i've also noticed during my analysis on previous drafts, in every case, the team that won somewhere along the way got a great steal at some point during the draft. naturally, a little luck helps as well.
on my cheatsheet, i have 2 values next to each player. the lowest value is what i think a player should go for at minimum. if a player is under this value, i will generally bid on him regardless of whether or not i want him. i do this because 1) if i end up getting him, on my board it is a steal; and 2) if i don't get him, i'm making sure that someone else is spending that extra dollar (or two). it might sound crazy, but when it gets to the very end of the draft, a $2 bid versus a $1 bid is the entire difference between having that key bye-week reserve that squeaks out a victory and losing. in this league (which has the highest entry fee of all i play) that is crucial to me.
3rd person nominated overall: michael turner. i got him for: $26.
in my book, this was a complete steal. i had turner at a low of $27 and a high of $34. that means he went for under what i believed to be his minimum value!!! the first two people nominated were vick and rodgers, so turner was the first RB on the board. i don't know if people were waiting for the top-tier guys, but turner quickly went up to $20. i kept out bidding people one by one and finally i put in a bid for $26. it was crazy, but in the snap of a finger, bidding on him completely stopped. as i watched the time tick down from 3 seconds...2 seconds....1.....i couldn't believe i walked away with him at such value. he has led the league in rushing attempts 2 of the last 3 years so you know he'll get his looks. i love the falcons' offense this year and can't wait for what he has in store for me. at $26, he was only a dollar more expensive than what i wanted to spend on my #2RB. so at this point, i don't know what strategy i'll use yet...
21st person nominated: lesean mccoy. i got him for: $68.
at this point, AP, foster, charles, rice, and even chris johnson had all been nominated and taken. i tried bidding a bit on all of them, but they went over my max value, so i stayed away. but, truthfully: mccoy was my guy for the entire draft. in a full-point PPR league, he is as valuable as anyone. i had him at $71 on my board, so $68 was a steal (and $2 cheaper than what i allocated for my #1RB in scenario 2). at this point, i'm now committed to budgeting for scenario 2 (that's another key for an auction: STAY WITHIN YOUR BUDGET!). since i went over $1 for turner and under $2 for mccoy, i had a surplus of $1 to spend elsewhere. i allocated it towards my #1WR.
31st person nominated: andre johnson. i got him for: $54.
by this point larry, calvin, vincent jackson, and brandon marshall were the only stud WRs taken. i had andre at a max value of $52, but there were no other top guys left on my board, so i felt that i would try to get him. when someone else bid $53, i was really reluctant to bid one more dollar. i decided to go for it and was happy when no one else bid. he's the best WR in the game, i love houston's offense, and i think their improved defense will give the offense more time with the ball. no matter what andre will have a great year, and his targets in a PPR league are invaluable. by over-spending $3 on andre, i had to do some quick adjustments. in scenario 2, instead of spending $30 on my WR2, i allocated only $27 to this position.
47th person nominated overall: tamba hali. i got him for $1.
no IDP player should ever go for more than $1. obviously, i nominated him and got him. his 14.5 sacks last year was amazing and i'm a fan of kansas city's defense. he's one of the best LBs in the game and filled my LB slot.
59th person nominated overall: kerry rhodes. i got him for: $1.
in terms of fantasy points in 2010, he was the most productive in our league. (we do weird IDP scoring, so even though you may think of other DBs in the NFL who are far superior at their position, they may have had less tackles or less passes deflected etc. for whatever reason, rhodes led the DBs in scoring in our system last year. i'll take him for that.)
71st person nominated overall: julius peppers. i got him for $1.
i like the bears' defense. peppers had a pretty good year statistically in 2010. he wasn't the best DL on the board, but for $1....well....you can't get cheaper than that!
79th person nominated overall: jeremy maclin. i got him for $24.
he missed the entire preseason with a viral infection, but everything i had read prior to the draft suggested that he'd be available week #1. the eagles should have a high-scoring offense, and maclin will get plenty of targets. for a #2WR, he's a solid pick and considering that there weren't many good WRs left at this point in the draft, i thought he was great value. i overpaid a little for him, but at that point it was basically between him or mike thomas. read my other post to see how i feel about thomas...by saving $3 on my budget, i allocated that towards my first bench spot. (you might think, "why not towards your flex?" well, at this point in the draft, players start going for really cheap...so i wanted good depth considering at this point i probably could still get my flex guy for the $5 i initially wanted for him.)
83rd person nominated overall: mason crosby. i got him for $1.
i wasn't sure who to nominate because it was the point in the draft where sometimes who you put up for $1 you get. i didn't want to risk getting someone i didn't want and i needed a kicker. based on the green bay game yesterday, crosby may not kick a single field goal this entire year!!! still, they put up 6 extra points...so maybe they will be so high-powered that he'll still be getting me 6-8 points a week. let's hope he's reduced to just field goals when they play the vikings!!
91st person nominated overall: malcom floyd. i got him for $3.
am i high on floyd individually? no. am i high on the chargers' offense as a whole? abso-fricken-lutely. this is where my money i allocated to my first bench spot came in. i don't envision using him as my flex whatsoever, but he'll be a good fill in for one week. he doesn't get a lot of passes thrown his way, but the ones he does catch go for good yardage (and the occasional long-bomb touchdown). rivers will spread the ball, but gates and jackson will always be his primary targets. still, floyd was worth $3 in my book.
138th person nominated: daniel thomas. i got him for $4.
at this point, none of the tight ends left on the board were worth $5. so i figured i could spend more money on my bench players and still get a serviceable TE for only $1. i really needed a backup RB and like i've said before, i like thomas this year. he'll be the goal line option for miami and will get plenty of touches. if bush has another injury, thomas will only increase in value. i'll really only need him for two weeks, so i like this pick.
141st person nominated: josh freeman. i got him for $2.
at long last: my starting QB. statistically, freeman was solid last year: 25 TDs and only 6 INTs. he also had over 300 yards rushing, which is definitely a plus. many analysts/experts in the fantasy football world considered his season a fluke and project he won't come close to those numbers this year. i know tampa will have a tough time making the playoffs with the saints and the falcons in the NFC south, but i do like freeman to at least be a serviceable QB. and considering the trends i examined before the draft--historically in this league--that is all i need him to do. just. be. serviceable.
144th person nominated: michael crabtree. i got him for $2.
this was the only low point of my draft. i actually didn't want crabtree, i was sure someone else would bid him up since (on my board) he was the best WR left and some managers still needed a backup receiver. well, my plan didn't exactly work. i had crabtree on my board for $7 and given the situation thought he'd be eaten up. i don't trust san francisco's offense whatsoever. i think their addition of braylon will help, but crabtree has always had a poor attitude. if this somehow is the year he finally lives up to his college expectations, i will be very happy. unfortunately, i just don't see that happening.
146th person nominated: brandon pettigrew. i got him for $2.
pettigrew was the 2nd best player on my board. (i had zach miller higher). considering miller's new situation and that pettigrew had 70+ receptions last year, i thought i'd take a stab at him. if stafford stays healthy the offense should be solid. i like this pick and found my starting TE.
155th person nominated overall: ronnie brown. i got hiim for $1.
ladies and gentlemen, this is my handcuff. when you invest over one-third of your budget into one guy (mccoy) you sure as heck better invest in his backup in case of an injury!!!
161st person nominated overall: davone bess. i got him for $2.
believe it or not, he was the guy i was targeting the entire draft as my flex. i deliberately chose not to nominate him because i wanted him to fall as far in the draft as possible. this was because a) i didn't want people to know i wanted him; b) i knew he would go for less money the longer i waited; and c) i wanted other managers to have less money so that by the time he actually was nominated i'd be able to get him. my strategy paid off. bess had 76 receptions in '09 and 79 in '10. he's the perfect slot receiver and is projected to get between 11 and 12 points for every game this year. he's not flashy, but he's consistent. in a PPR format wes welker is one of the best WRs in the game. i consider bess and danny amendola to be the "second tier slot receivers." they'll get you points because of their catches, not because of their frequent end zone visits. i love this pickup and can't wait to see him come through for the rest of the year.
164th person nominated overall: joe flacco. i got him for $7.
at this point i had $8 left and 2 positions to fill. i had the most money of anyone left. i really needed a backup QB and flacco was easily the best available. the guy before me had $6 left and bid all $6 on him assuming he could get him. i knew i needed him and bid $7. i like this pickup (even though he went for more than freeman!!) and like i've said in other posts, i'm high on flacco. i imagine i'll be switching between freeman/flacco based on who has the more favorable matchup. again, since history tells me that all i need is a serviceable QB, this is a great strategy to employ.
166th person nominated overall: danny woodhead. i got him for $1.
that was all the money i had left. woodhead is also valuable in a PPR league. i check and saw that he's actually projected to get between about 9 and 12 points a game depending on the matchup. i don't know how he'll be used in new england with their new rookies in town, but he did have a lot of receptions for a RB last year (especially one who didn't really come on to the scene until later in the season). considering i'd only use him a maximum of 2 games, i'm ok with this pick.
lineup:
QB: freeman/flacco (depending on matchup)
WR: johnson
WR: maclin
RB: mccoy
RB: turner
FLEX: bess
TE: pettigrew
K: crosby
DL: peppers
LB: hali
DB: rhodes
BN: thomas
BN: crabtree
BN: brown
BN: floyd
BN: flacco (depending on matchup)
BN: woodhead
i really like this team. week 7 gets a little hectic with some byes, but that happens no matter what you do. i hate to sound arrogant early, but compared to some of the other teams i've assembled, i think this one is a lock for the playoffs. i have some really favorable matchups if i do make the playoffs, so this could be a great year.
that being said, in this league my week one matchup is against a guy who had both greg jennings and jordy nelson starting this week. so i don't expect to overcome a 40-point deficit, but his team was also projected to have the most points over the course of the season. either way, with sunday coming up i just can't wait for fantasy football to be kicked off in full gear. let the games begin!
Tuesday, September 6, 2011
I think I finally got a little
bit of respect for our favorite mister T. Paw. On tonight's Colbert Report, when asked why he dropped out of the race, after mentioning lack of funds, he said "I came in third behind Bachmann and Ron Paul. I think that's enough for any one person..." At least he sees what a joke politics has become.
fantasy football - draft 3
i had my third draft with bockmed yesterday. (see his post for scoring details). i've never played with any of these guys before, so it should be an interesting league.
i had the 4th overall pick. on my board there are 4 undoubtedly-top-tier-RBs-who-stand-out-from-everyone-else. they are foster, AP, charles, and rice. thus, with the 4th overall pick, i was guaranteed one of them. i decided that whoever fell into my lap would be my pick.
that being said, chris johnson went #1 overall, and i thus ended up having a choice between charles or rice.
first round: ray rice.
i love the guy. from his rushing ability to his dump-off sideline plays that he can turn into a 20-yarder, the man is a beast. i had him a little higher than charles (although i love that kansas city has the highest rushing rate in the league) so i went with rice. i don't have him in any other leagues, so it will be fun cheering for yet another player.
round two: hakeem nicks.
i got nicks on the comeback at number 21 overall. at that point the elite RBs were off the board and the upper echelon QBs were gone. bock took andre at 9 and roddy and calvin soon followed. nicks was the next highest on my board. he's young and athletic and is in a high-passing NYG offense. what's not to love.
round three: peyton hillis.
i was really hoping that matt forte would fall to me, but he didn't. i was surprised that mike wallace went ahead of hillis because i thought that manager would have had hillis over wallace (although he did already draft 2 RBs so he didn't exactly have a need). i didn't want hillis at all since i already own him in my other league. plus he shares his bye week with rice...which will make my week 5 pretty dicey. still, he was the best player on the board and i couldn't let myself take blount/bowe/bradshaw over him.
round four: mike williams (TB).
he was the best receiver on my board. i was looking to snipe a QB, but i felt that williams had better value here. hopefully freeman holds up this year...
round five: benjarvus green-ellis.
now i know what you are thinking: are you just re-drafting the same team you had in that other league? honestly, no. generally i have a WR as my flex. but this league isn't PPR, so you generally want your flex to be a guy who will get good yardage and a solid amount of TDs. green-ellis is basically good for 1000 yards and will get every goal line opportunity for the pats. i mean, the guy is a tank. i can easily see him getting 11 or 12 TDs this year. so he made sense for my flex.
round six: matt ryan.
best QB on the board. i'm pretty high on the falcons' offense this year. i like this pick. 'nuff said.
round seven: A.J. green.
i don't know what i was thinking here. i really wanted a TE and had been targeting owen daniels. daniels actually fell to me, but at the last second i thought that i would have a #1 receiver just in case something happens to my two starters. plus, if he pans out, he'll be a good flex play and a potential keeper next year. still, in retrospect, i should have taken daniels.
round eight: pierre garcon.
i really hesitated with this pick. i don't trust manning at all in indy. he could be the starter on day one and have a career year. he could be out six weeks. it's a risk. i like garcon coming off of the bench and if peyton has a good year...well....this could be another keeper.
round nine: C.J. spiller.
clemson connection! actually, i needed another RB to fill in for my week 5 bye. he fit the bill. and i have a spiller boner. what more can i say.
round ten: matt cassel.
hopefully he survives his rib injury. i've never been big on the chiefs' passing game (because all they do is run) and it doesn't help that moeaki is out for the season. still, the addition of breaston will take some pressure off of bowe. but i'm not sure that translates into a pick worth keeping. either way, he's a serviceable backup to ryan.
round eleven: brandon pettigrew.
i desperately needed a TE. i love him in PPR leagues, but in non-PPR leagues his value is minimum. i have to hope that stafford targets him more in the red zone...but i just don't see him taking many balls/targets away from calvin. dang.
round twelve: thomas jones.
i took him a.) for the week 5 bye dilemma but b.) in case spiller really sucks behind fred jackson. someone is gonna have to start week 5...
round thirteen: davone bess.
i know i know i know. i'm way too high on bess this year. he's another perfect example of a great option in PPR leagues but a pretty pointless one in non-ppr formats. what was i thinking?
round fourteen: chargers DST.
let's just hope they improve their punt/kick coverage. as far as DSTs go, it's a crapshoot every year. maybe they'll be a top-10 defense. maybe they'll be horrible. that's what free agents/the waiver wire is for.
round fifteen: alex henery.
the most accurate field goal kicker in college history.
round sixteen: jared cook.
you can write it down right now: he's one of my keepers for next year. now that tennessee is finally rid of bo scaife, cook will have a chance to shine. look what he did in the last 2 games of last year. if he can keep up that production (especially if hasselbeck pans out) he'll be VERY worthy of my 14th round pick next season.
starting lineup:
qb: ryan
rb: rice
rb: hillis
wr: nicks
wr: williams (TB)
flex: green-ellis
te: pettigrew
dst: chargers
k: henery
overall assessment: i'll be lucky to make it in to the playoffs.
Monday, September 5, 2011
Draft Recap #2
This afternoon was the draft for what will be a twelve team keeper league. The lineup and scoring are all pretty standard. I had the 10th pick of the draft. Did I mention that I get to beat Ahmed in this league?
Round 1:
With 9 RBs gone, I decided to take my #1 WR, Andre Johnson. It just seemed like the thing to do. I considered taking Rodgers, and wasn't ready to pull the trigger on a questionable RB talent with this guy still on the board. He's the number 1 target on a team that can throw the ball very effectively and he's crazy talented.
Round 2:
I still didn't like staring at Steven Jackson or Michael Turner that much, and Roddy White went the pick before mine, so I took Drew Brees. I like to get "sure things" with my first two or three picks and to me, that's what Drew Brees is. I expect him to keep putting up big numbers while scaling back the turnovers a bit.
Round 3:
I wanted Ahmad Bradshaw, but he went 1 pick ahead of me. So I picked Dez Bryant. He's one of the most athletic players in the league and a true big play threat. I think the 'Boys are going to be explosive this year and Dez to be a big part of that.
Round 4:
With Antonio Gates long gone, I pretty much had to take a RB here and I decided on Knowshon Moreno. He's versatile. He'll produce. There are more question marks here than i like, but that's what happens when you wait 4 rounds to take your first RB. I hope I don't regret not taking Felix Jones.
Round 5:
There were a couple good TEs left, more questionable RBs and a couple of WRs here with big potential. I took Mario Manningham. I have high expectations for Mario. He's really the only receiving threat on the team after Hakim Nicks and as we saw in the last couple of weeks of last season, he's capable of being hugely productive.
Round 6:
I was hoping Jermichael Finley would make it around the turn, but alas, he did not. So I went with the last of the proven, "elite," TEs in Vernon Davis. He's the best player on that offense. It has to count for something, right?
Round 7:
By the time the 3rd round came and went, I had my mind made up that I would try to make the rest of my starting lineup as solid as possible and make do with volume at RB. I chose Joseph Addai here. He's not exciting. He is the starter on a good offense. He gets a lot of touches inside the ten. I hope he stays healthy.
Round 8:
Mike Tolbert seemed like the guy to take. He's going to continue to have a role in that offense which could increase if Ryan Mathews struggles. Again, not a fancy player, but he could score a bunch.
Round 9:
Michael Bush. When McFadden is out, he's the man. It seems like whoever is running for the Raiders has big games. Even when McFadden is in, Bush is capable of picking up big chunks of yardage to give the other guy a breather. I really like this pick.
Round 10:
See a trend here? I took another RB. This time I took Willis McGahee. He's attractive in that he knows how to get the ball in the endzone inside the 5 yardline. I also like this as insurance on Knowshon Moreno, who has been known to miss a little bit of time.
Round 11:
Could you tell I'm confident in my first 3 receivers? I took my first backup here with Mike Sims-Walker. I don't really like him or the situation very much, but he was the best available. He had 1 good year in Jacksonville, right? Maybe Bradford will find that again.
Round 12:
I decided to take DeMarco Murray here. I find him to be much more impressive than Choice in the Dallas backfield. This pick will turn out if Felix Jones gets hurt or is unproductive. There's also a little keeper appeal here.
Round 13:
Jerome Harrison. I want to make another Jahvid Best joke.
Round 14:
This is the point in the draft when there's a 1% chance that the player you take will remain on your team more than 3 weeks. Half as a joke, half expecting a "breakout" year, I went with Eric Decker.
In the last two rounds, as always, I filled up my defense and kicker spots. I always wait on these, because even when I've taken a really good one early, I have never kept the same kicker or defense for the entire year. More often than not, I use the waiver wire to play whichever defense is facing a shitty offense and/or rookie quarterback.
Starting lineup:
QB Drew Brees
RB Knowshon Moreno
RB Joseph Addai
FlEX Mario Manningham
WR Andre Johnson
WR Dez Bryant
TE Vernon Davis
Bench:
RB: Mike Tolbert, Michael Bush, Willis McGahee, DeMarco Murray, Jerome Harrison
WR: Mike Sims-Walker, Eric Decker
I'm hoping for the passing game to carry this team, and perhaps to hit the jackpot on one of my 7 RBs. I never pick a backup tight end. There were a couple of guys I looked at as backup QBs but they always got snagged before I felt that they were a good value. I'll hopefully only need one for one week, and after about the 15th one they all look about the same anyway. Here's to hoping the next Josh Freeman goes unnoticed. I don't really like my backup WR situation, but again, I hopefully won't need them much. Then there's always the Brandon Lloyd's of the world that go undrafted.
I think I like this team.
Round 1:
With 9 RBs gone, I decided to take my #1 WR, Andre Johnson. It just seemed like the thing to do. I considered taking Rodgers, and wasn't ready to pull the trigger on a questionable RB talent with this guy still on the board. He's the number 1 target on a team that can throw the ball very effectively and he's crazy talented.
Round 2:
I still didn't like staring at Steven Jackson or Michael Turner that much, and Roddy White went the pick before mine, so I took Drew Brees. I like to get "sure things" with my first two or three picks and to me, that's what Drew Brees is. I expect him to keep putting up big numbers while scaling back the turnovers a bit.
Round 3:
I wanted Ahmad Bradshaw, but he went 1 pick ahead of me. So I picked Dez Bryant. He's one of the most athletic players in the league and a true big play threat. I think the 'Boys are going to be explosive this year and Dez to be a big part of that.
Round 4:
With Antonio Gates long gone, I pretty much had to take a RB here and I decided on Knowshon Moreno. He's versatile. He'll produce. There are more question marks here than i like, but that's what happens when you wait 4 rounds to take your first RB. I hope I don't regret not taking Felix Jones.
Round 5:
There were a couple good TEs left, more questionable RBs and a couple of WRs here with big potential. I took Mario Manningham. I have high expectations for Mario. He's really the only receiving threat on the team after Hakim Nicks and as we saw in the last couple of weeks of last season, he's capable of being hugely productive.
Round 6:
I was hoping Jermichael Finley would make it around the turn, but alas, he did not. So I went with the last of the proven, "elite," TEs in Vernon Davis. He's the best player on that offense. It has to count for something, right?
Round 7:
By the time the 3rd round came and went, I had my mind made up that I would try to make the rest of my starting lineup as solid as possible and make do with volume at RB. I chose Joseph Addai here. He's not exciting. He is the starter on a good offense. He gets a lot of touches inside the ten. I hope he stays healthy.
Round 8:
Mike Tolbert seemed like the guy to take. He's going to continue to have a role in that offense which could increase if Ryan Mathews struggles. Again, not a fancy player, but he could score a bunch.
Round 9:
Michael Bush. When McFadden is out, he's the man. It seems like whoever is running for the Raiders has big games. Even when McFadden is in, Bush is capable of picking up big chunks of yardage to give the other guy a breather. I really like this pick.
Round 10:
See a trend here? I took another RB. This time I took Willis McGahee. He's attractive in that he knows how to get the ball in the endzone inside the 5 yardline. I also like this as insurance on Knowshon Moreno, who has been known to miss a little bit of time.
Round 11:
Could you tell I'm confident in my first 3 receivers? I took my first backup here with Mike Sims-Walker. I don't really like him or the situation very much, but he was the best available. He had 1 good year in Jacksonville, right? Maybe Bradford will find that again.
Round 12:
I decided to take DeMarco Murray here. I find him to be much more impressive than Choice in the Dallas backfield. This pick will turn out if Felix Jones gets hurt or is unproductive. There's also a little keeper appeal here.
Round 13:
Jerome Harrison. I want to make another Jahvid Best joke.
Round 14:
This is the point in the draft when there's a 1% chance that the player you take will remain on your team more than 3 weeks. Half as a joke, half expecting a "breakout" year, I went with Eric Decker.
In the last two rounds, as always, I filled up my defense and kicker spots. I always wait on these, because even when I've taken a really good one early, I have never kept the same kicker or defense for the entire year. More often than not, I use the waiver wire to play whichever defense is facing a shitty offense and/or rookie quarterback.
Starting lineup:
QB Drew Brees
RB Knowshon Moreno
RB Joseph Addai
FlEX Mario Manningham
WR Andre Johnson
WR Dez Bryant
TE Vernon Davis
Bench:
RB: Mike Tolbert, Michael Bush, Willis McGahee, DeMarco Murray, Jerome Harrison
WR: Mike Sims-Walker, Eric Decker
I'm hoping for the passing game to carry this team, and perhaps to hit the jackpot on one of my 7 RBs. I never pick a backup tight end. There were a couple of guys I looked at as backup QBs but they always got snagged before I felt that they were a good value. I'll hopefully only need one for one week, and after about the 15th one they all look about the same anyway. Here's to hoping the next Josh Freeman goes unnoticed. I don't really like my backup WR situation, but again, I hopefully won't need them much. Then there's always the Brandon Lloyd's of the world that go undrafted.
I think I like this team.
Saturday, September 3, 2011
cleverbot
if you go to the website http://cleverbot.com/ you can basically have a chat with a computer. a while ago a genius invented this in hopes of making machines better at understanding humans. you can literally have conversations with computers about anything. youtube is filled with videos of conversations that people have had. the computer often strays away from the topic of conversation, but (as i have found) always has great insight.
also, for being a computer, it is surprisingly witty. this is a snippet of a really good burn the computer had on me.
computer: i'm thinking a lot about iambic pentameter.
me: can you write me a poem?
computer: about what?
me: can you write me a poem about iambic pentameter in iambic pentameter?
computer: i cannot do that for there is far too much emotion involved.
me: how is a poem about iambic pentameter emotional? how will you involve too much emotion??
computer: right...
i guess the computers win again.
also, for being a computer, it is surprisingly witty. this is a snippet of a really good burn the computer had on me.
computer: i'm thinking a lot about iambic pentameter.
me: can you write me a poem?
computer: about what?
me: can you write me a poem about iambic pentameter in iambic pentameter?
computer: i cannot do that for there is far too much emotion involved.
me: how is a poem about iambic pentameter emotional? how will you involve too much emotion??
computer: right...
i guess the computers win again.
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