i love auction drafts because there is SO much strategy that needs to be integrated into your draft. beforehand you absolutely must have a good understanding of where you value players. also, with a $200 budget, you have to budget accordingly.
furthermore, as the draft progresses, it literally becomes a "market." as teams fill in certain roster spots, the remaining players can go for ridiculously overpriced (or under-priced) amounts depending on when they are taken.
what i also love about auction drafts is that players are nominated in no particular order. if you have the very first pick of the draft, you can nominate arian foster or tarvaris jackson. whoever you want to start bidding on is fair game. if someone else is willing to pay more they'll bid more. it's really a simple format. i've always been told that the strategy is to nominate someone you don't want for $1 and then let everyone else drive up their price so that they have less money to spend later on. whether or not that seems like a good idea is up to you.
before drafting, i had developed a key strategy. this league has been around since 2001, and yahoo does a cool thing where they "archive" leagues in which the same players have been playing. so you can look at draft results over time. i analyzed trends over a few years. sometimes i analyzed how the top 3 (money winning) teams spent their $200 in the draft. i also analyzed how the top 8 (playoff teams) allocated their funds during draft day. i also examined the drafting strategies of parker and pelkey, who i consider to consistently be the best 2 players. i looked at the average money spent by these different groups and noticed that some trends emerged: lots of money was spent on the 2 WRs and almost always big-time money was spent on their #1 RB. i also noticed--in general--playoff teams did not worry about having a top-tier QB. with this in mind, i developed 2 possible strategies for spending my money during the draft:
POSITION | SCENARIO #1 | SCENARIO #2 |
QB | 5 | 5 |
WR | 40 | 50 |
WR | 40 | 30 |
RB | 60 | 70 |
RB | 25 | 25 |
TE | 10 | 5 |
FLEX | 8 | 5 |
K | 1 | 1 |
DB | 1 | 1 |
LB | 1 | 1 |
DL | 1 | 1 |
BN | 3 | 1 |
BN | 1 | 1 |
BN | 1 | 1 |
BN | 1 | 1 |
BN | 1 | 1 |
BN | 1 | 1 |
basically, these scenarios were really similar. the difference: the extra $10 on your #1WR and #1RB gets you a top-tier guy. i was just going to play it out and see who fell on my team where and then choose which strategy i would follow for the rest of the draft.
one last thing: what i also love about auctions is that, early in the draft, you can find a lot of extremes. sometimes not enough people at a position have gone yet, so you can't gauge if you're getting a steal or a horrible deal. i've also noticed during my analysis on previous drafts, in every case, the team that won somewhere along the way got a great steal at some point during the draft. naturally, a little luck helps as well.
on my cheatsheet, i have 2 values next to each player. the lowest value is what i think a player should go for at minimum. if a player is under this value, i will generally bid on him regardless of whether or not i want him. i do this because 1) if i end up getting him, on my board it is a steal; and 2) if i don't get him, i'm making sure that someone else is spending that extra dollar (or two). it might sound crazy, but when it gets to the very end of the draft, a $2 bid versus a $1 bid is the entire difference between having that key bye-week reserve that squeaks out a victory and losing. in this league (which has the highest entry fee of all i play) that is crucial to me.
3rd person nominated overall: michael turner. i got him for: $26.
in my book, this was a complete steal. i had turner at a low of $27 and a high of $34. that means he went for under what i believed to be his minimum value!!! the first two people nominated were vick and rodgers, so turner was the first RB on the board. i don't know if people were waiting for the top-tier guys, but turner quickly went up to $20. i kept out bidding people one by one and finally i put in a bid for $26. it was crazy, but in the snap of a finger, bidding on him completely stopped. as i watched the time tick down from 3 seconds...2 seconds....1.....i couldn't believe i walked away with him at such value. he has led the league in rushing attempts 2 of the last 3 years so you know he'll get his looks. i love the falcons' offense this year and can't wait for what he has in store for me. at $26, he was only a dollar more expensive than what i wanted to spend on my #2RB. so at this point, i don't know what strategy i'll use yet...
21st person nominated: lesean mccoy. i got him for: $68.
at this point, AP, foster, charles, rice, and even chris johnson had all been nominated and taken. i tried bidding a bit on all of them, but they went over my max value, so i stayed away. but, truthfully: mccoy was my guy for the entire draft. in a full-point PPR league, he is as valuable as anyone. i had him at $71 on my board, so $68 was a steal (and $2 cheaper than what i allocated for my #1RB in scenario 2). at this point, i'm now committed to budgeting for scenario 2 (that's another key for an auction: STAY WITHIN YOUR BUDGET!). since i went over $1 for turner and under $2 for mccoy, i had a surplus of $1 to spend elsewhere. i allocated it towards my #1WR.
31st person nominated: andre johnson. i got him for: $54.
by this point larry, calvin, vincent jackson, and brandon marshall were the only stud WRs taken. i had andre at a max value of $52, but there were no other top guys left on my board, so i felt that i would try to get him. when someone else bid $53, i was really reluctant to bid one more dollar. i decided to go for it and was happy when no one else bid. he's the best WR in the game, i love houston's offense, and i think their improved defense will give the offense more time with the ball. no matter what andre will have a great year, and his targets in a PPR league are invaluable. by over-spending $3 on andre, i had to do some quick adjustments. in scenario 2, instead of spending $30 on my WR2, i allocated only $27 to this position.
47th person nominated overall: tamba hali. i got him for $1.
no IDP player should ever go for more than $1. obviously, i nominated him and got him. his 14.5 sacks last year was amazing and i'm a fan of kansas city's defense. he's one of the best LBs in the game and filled my LB slot.
59th person nominated overall: kerry rhodes. i got him for: $1.
in terms of fantasy points in 2010, he was the most productive in our league. (we do weird IDP scoring, so even though you may think of other DBs in the NFL who are far superior at their position, they may have had less tackles or less passes deflected etc. for whatever reason, rhodes led the DBs in scoring in our system last year. i'll take him for that.)
71st person nominated overall: julius peppers. i got him for $1.
i like the bears' defense. peppers had a pretty good year statistically in 2010. he wasn't the best DL on the board, but for $1....well....you can't get cheaper than that!
79th person nominated overall: jeremy maclin. i got him for $24.
he missed the entire preseason with a viral infection, but everything i had read prior to the draft suggested that he'd be available week #1. the eagles should have a high-scoring offense, and maclin will get plenty of targets. for a #2WR, he's a solid pick and considering that there weren't many good WRs left at this point in the draft, i thought he was great value. i overpaid a little for him, but at that point it was basically between him or mike thomas. read my other post to see how i feel about thomas...by saving $3 on my budget, i allocated that towards my first bench spot. (you might think, "why not towards your flex?" well, at this point in the draft, players start going for really cheap...so i wanted good depth considering at this point i probably could still get my flex guy for the $5 i initially wanted for him.)
83rd person nominated overall: mason crosby. i got him for $1.
i wasn't sure who to nominate because it was the point in the draft where sometimes who you put up for $1 you get. i didn't want to risk getting someone i didn't want and i needed a kicker. based on the green bay game yesterday, crosby may not kick a single field goal this entire year!!! still, they put up 6 extra points...so maybe they will be so high-powered that he'll still be getting me 6-8 points a week. let's hope he's reduced to just field goals when they play the vikings!!
91st person nominated overall: malcom floyd. i got him for $3.
am i high on floyd individually? no. am i high on the chargers' offense as a whole? abso-fricken-lutely. this is where my money i allocated to my first bench spot came in. i don't envision using him as my flex whatsoever, but he'll be a good fill in for one week. he doesn't get a lot of passes thrown his way, but the ones he does catch go for good yardage (and the occasional long-bomb touchdown). rivers will spread the ball, but gates and jackson will always be his primary targets. still, floyd was worth $3 in my book.
138th person nominated: daniel thomas. i got him for $4.
at this point, none of the tight ends left on the board were worth $5. so i figured i could spend more money on my bench players and still get a serviceable TE for only $1. i really needed a backup RB and like i've said before, i like thomas this year. he'll be the goal line option for miami and will get plenty of touches. if bush has another injury, thomas will only increase in value. i'll really only need him for two weeks, so i like this pick.
141st person nominated: josh freeman. i got him for $2.
at long last: my starting QB. statistically, freeman was solid last year: 25 TDs and only 6 INTs. he also had over 300 yards rushing, which is definitely a plus. many analysts/experts in the fantasy football world considered his season a fluke and project he won't come close to those numbers this year. i know tampa will have a tough time making the playoffs with the saints and the falcons in the NFC south, but i do like freeman to at least be a serviceable QB. and considering the trends i examined before the draft--historically in this league--that is all i need him to do. just. be. serviceable.
144th person nominated: michael crabtree. i got him for $2.
this was the only low point of my draft. i actually didn't want crabtree, i was sure someone else would bid him up since (on my board) he was the best WR left and some managers still needed a backup receiver. well, my plan didn't exactly work. i had crabtree on my board for $7 and given the situation thought he'd be eaten up. i don't trust san francisco's offense whatsoever. i think their addition of braylon will help, but crabtree has always had a poor attitude. if this somehow is the year he finally lives up to his college expectations, i will be very happy. unfortunately, i just don't see that happening.
146th person nominated: brandon pettigrew. i got him for $2.
pettigrew was the 2nd best player on my board. (i had zach miller higher). considering miller's new situation and that pettigrew had 70+ receptions last year, i thought i'd take a stab at him. if stafford stays healthy the offense should be solid. i like this pick and found my starting TE.
155th person nominated overall: ronnie brown. i got hiim for $1.
ladies and gentlemen, this is my handcuff. when you invest over one-third of your budget into one guy (mccoy) you sure as heck better invest in his backup in case of an injury!!!
161st person nominated overall: davone bess. i got him for $2.
believe it or not, he was the guy i was targeting the entire draft as my flex. i deliberately chose not to nominate him because i wanted him to fall as far in the draft as possible. this was because a) i didn't want people to know i wanted him; b) i knew he would go for less money the longer i waited; and c) i wanted other managers to have less money so that by the time he actually was nominated i'd be able to get him. my strategy paid off. bess had 76 receptions in '09 and 79 in '10. he's the perfect slot receiver and is projected to get between 11 and 12 points for every game this year. he's not flashy, but he's consistent. in a PPR format wes welker is one of the best WRs in the game. i consider bess and danny amendola to be the "second tier slot receivers." they'll get you points because of their catches, not because of their frequent end zone visits. i love this pickup and can't wait to see him come through for the rest of the year.
164th person nominated overall: joe flacco. i got him for $7.
at this point i had $8 left and 2 positions to fill. i had the most money of anyone left. i really needed a backup QB and flacco was easily the best available. the guy before me had $6 left and bid all $6 on him assuming he could get him. i knew i needed him and bid $7. i like this pickup (even though he went for more than freeman!!) and like i've said in other posts, i'm high on flacco. i imagine i'll be switching between freeman/flacco based on who has the more favorable matchup. again, since history tells me that all i need is a serviceable QB, this is a great strategy to employ.
166th person nominated overall: danny woodhead. i got him for $1.
that was all the money i had left. woodhead is also valuable in a PPR league. i check and saw that he's actually projected to get between about 9 and 12 points a game depending on the matchup. i don't know how he'll be used in new england with their new rookies in town, but he did have a lot of receptions for a RB last year (especially one who didn't really come on to the scene until later in the season). considering i'd only use him a maximum of 2 games, i'm ok with this pick.
lineup:
QB: freeman/flacco (depending on matchup)
WR: johnson
WR: maclin
RB: mccoy
RB: turner
FLEX: bess
TE: pettigrew
K: crosby
DL: peppers
LB: hali
DB: rhodes
BN: thomas
BN: crabtree
BN: brown
BN: floyd
BN: flacco (depending on matchup)
BN: woodhead
i really like this team. week 7 gets a little hectic with some byes, but that happens no matter what you do. i hate to sound arrogant early, but compared to some of the other teams i've assembled, i think this one is a lock for the playoffs. i have some really favorable matchups if i do make the playoffs, so this could be a great year.
that being said, in this league my week one matchup is against a guy who had both greg jennings and jordy nelson starting this week. so i don't expect to overcome a 40-point deficit, but his team was also projected to have the most points over the course of the season. either way, with sunday coming up i just can't wait for fantasy football to be kicked off in full gear. let the games begin!
Well done, Kubas. That's the kind of team I could love. On another note... Why the fuck did the saints try running on the last play? I could've had 4 more points out of Brees.
ReplyDeleteYeah dude, for a PPR format I'm feeling good!
ReplyDeleteAnd no kidding about the Saints/Packers game. I didn't understand passing on 4th and inches and then rushing up the gut on 4th and a full 1. I've always been a firm believer in play action in that situation...