The first round of the NFL draft is tonight, and I'd like to offer up a few predictions. I think it's safe to say that this will be one of the most active NFL drafts in history and numerous teams will be trading up and down for positional purposes. Spielman loves to be active on draft day, and I don't see him staying put in this draft. That being said, the draft isn't as deep as it has been in previous years. There is no real "go to" guy to be drafted, and for that reason the draft may develop organically and some teams may choose to keep their current draft positions solely because some players may slip to them. To be frank, a rated #8 overall on one team could easily be rated #25 on another. With the exception of the first few lineman, the difference between the 10th best player and the 25th best player is fairly minimal. The real difference is position, not talent or potential.
Thus, I see all three draft-day scenarios for the Vikings being completely plausible (trade up, keep current picks, trade down). I think making a trade of some sort is slightly more plausible than just keeping our two picks. Here is my best guess:
Scenario 1: Trade Up (Probability: 40%)
The Chargers have been quite candid that they aren't too concerned with moving up and may move down in the draft. They have a pressing need for an offensive lineman, but have admitted that they think the field of offensive lineman is so deep this year that they will just draft the best player that falls to them. There will be a number of second-tier O-Lineman still on the board in the board in the pick #18-25 range of the draft. Thus, I see the Vikings packaging a deal with the Chargers (the Dolphins and Saints are lesser possibilities here, too) sending the #23 pick and a our 2nd (or 3rd if negotiations go well) for the rights to the #11 (or the #12/#15 if we go with Miami/New Orleans instead) overall pick.
At #11 I see only three possibilities: Chance Warmack, Dee Milliner, and Tavon Austin. I think Dee Milliner will be off the board by then, I think this is reaching for Warmack a bit, and this would be perfect for Tavon Austin if the Jets haven't already drafted him (and if Saint Louis hasn't moved up to take him as well.)
My prediction: We take the safe route and draft Chase Warmack.
With #25 I see us either taking Manti Te'o or Cordarrelle Patterson.
My prediction: We take Manti Te'o.
Scenario 2: Trade Down (Probability: 40%)
With the new collective bargaining agreement in place, teams that draft a Quarterback in the first round are allowed to place an option on the 5th year of a rookie contract. This is huge considering it is the most important position in all of football. As such, I see the Vikings keeping their #23 pick and trading away the #25.
At #23 I see us again with 3 choices: Desmond Trufant, Bjoern Werner, and Sheldon Richardson. My prediction: we go with Bjoern Werner as the presumptive Jared Allen replacement.
If Buffalo does not take Nassib with their pick, they will trade with the Vikes for his rights at #25. Philadelphia could do this with Geno Smith. Jacksonville could do this with Matt Barkley. We would presumably gain their 2nd round pick and perhaps a 4th rounder as well.
Scenario 3: Keep both picks (Probability: 20%)
At #23 I think we consider Werner, Trufant, and a receiver. My prediction: we take Cordarrelle Patterson. The security of a pick almost immediately afterwards means we can then focus on defense.
At #25 we really have three options: best LB available (Te'o), best DL available (Werner/Richardson), best CB available (Trufant). My guess is we will go with Te'o because Werner may be off the board and Trufant isn't as safe of a pick as Te'o.
That being said: who knows. It will be an interesting night. Theoretically we could even trade up (get rid of #23 and 2nd rounder for the rights to a top 12 pick) and then trade down (get rid of #25 for a different 2nd rounder and say a 4th rounder). Who knows. It'll be a fun night for football fans.
Thursday, April 25, 2013
Wednesday, April 24, 2013
A Depressing Topic
About a month ago on Reddit, someone posted to AskReddit something along the lines of "What is the most mind-blowing quote you know?"
As I was perusing this topic, one of the highest-rated comments was roughly as follows: "If you choose not to have children, you will be the first person in your direct lineage since the very first humans that had children not to do so." Pretty powerful stuff.
Similarly, one of the other highest-rated comments was approximately this: "At some point, the last person to have ever known you or to have carried memories of you will die, and your existence will be gone forever." That's pretty chilling.
I hadn't really stewed over these quotes. From an "emotional" standpoint, I don't find these realities too intimidating. I mean, I'm a rationally-thinking human being that understands, frankly, time goes on and eventually generations pass by. I have no idea of the names of my relatives 20 generations removed. Heck, given the plight of my Jewish ancestors escaping persecution and my Bohemian ancestors escaping Communism, I don't even know the names of my relatives 3 generations removed. With the exception of Icelanders and a few remote people-groups, I think just about everyone else on planet Earth is in the same boat.
But today I think this idea finally started to resonate with me. I learned that my great-uncle on my father's side passed away. He was the last remaining child of those 2 generations removed from me on my paternal grandfather's side. So, just like that, an entire generation of my ancestry has been removed from existence. It's really weird to think about.
But here's where I'd like to put a positive spin on things. When you think about it, the fact that I witnessed, was in contact with, and personally knew almost all of my paternal grandfather's generation is kind of mind-blowing in itself. Not only did I know them, but I got to experience about a quarter-century with them living at the same time as me. That's incredible, isn't it?
Just 100 years ago the average life expectancy for a male in America was about 48 years. Knowing your grandparents was almost unheard of. Think of how far we've come in just 100 years. How much farther will we go by 2113? Given the miracles of modern medicine and the advancement of technology, it's not impractical to think that my grandchildren and great-grandchildren could live to be 200 or 250 years old. Impossible, right? Wrong! 100 years ago it was unfathomable that human beings would live on average into their 70s and 80s. Humans living to be 100 would have been laughed at. Now we consider it a normal event and are no longer blown away by the fact that humans can live to be 100. It's completely plausible. How is my declaration that my grandchildren will live to be 200 years old any more far-fetched than a scientist in 1913 saying that his grandchildren would live to be 80? It's really not that different when you think about it.
But here's where I think we are luckiest and where, as Americans, we are far too ignorant. In the status quo, there are still billions of people sharing our planet that will never meet their grandparents. One of my best friends in grad school is a heck of a guy from Zimbabwe. Three of his four grandparents were dead before he was even born. His grandmother is 64 years old. Not only is she the eldest person in her community, but he was the only one of all of the kids in his primary school to have a living grandparent. Pretty crazy, right? Here we can compare the life expectancy of a North Dakotan to a Zimbabwean and it's as though possibilities for one are endless and the other is just coming around to the standard of living in the 1900s. Yet we are inhabiting the same planet at the same time.
I guess the moral of the story is that were are incredibly lucky getting luckier. We shouldn't take that for granted. And who knows, maybe somewhere out there is a Zimbabwean blogging right now - part of the first generation in the developing world that will love long enough to meet all of their grandkids.
As I was perusing this topic, one of the highest-rated comments was roughly as follows: "If you choose not to have children, you will be the first person in your direct lineage since the very first humans that had children not to do so." Pretty powerful stuff.
Similarly, one of the other highest-rated comments was approximately this: "At some point, the last person to have ever known you or to have carried memories of you will die, and your existence will be gone forever." That's pretty chilling.
I hadn't really stewed over these quotes. From an "emotional" standpoint, I don't find these realities too intimidating. I mean, I'm a rationally-thinking human being that understands, frankly, time goes on and eventually generations pass by. I have no idea of the names of my relatives 20 generations removed. Heck, given the plight of my Jewish ancestors escaping persecution and my Bohemian ancestors escaping Communism, I don't even know the names of my relatives 3 generations removed. With the exception of Icelanders and a few remote people-groups, I think just about everyone else on planet Earth is in the same boat.
But today I think this idea finally started to resonate with me. I learned that my great-uncle on my father's side passed away. He was the last remaining child of those 2 generations removed from me on my paternal grandfather's side. So, just like that, an entire generation of my ancestry has been removed from existence. It's really weird to think about.
But here's where I'd like to put a positive spin on things. When you think about it, the fact that I witnessed, was in contact with, and personally knew almost all of my paternal grandfather's generation is kind of mind-blowing in itself. Not only did I know them, but I got to experience about a quarter-century with them living at the same time as me. That's incredible, isn't it?
Just 100 years ago the average life expectancy for a male in America was about 48 years. Knowing your grandparents was almost unheard of. Think of how far we've come in just 100 years. How much farther will we go by 2113? Given the miracles of modern medicine and the advancement of technology, it's not impractical to think that my grandchildren and great-grandchildren could live to be 200 or 250 years old. Impossible, right? Wrong! 100 years ago it was unfathomable that human beings would live on average into their 70s and 80s. Humans living to be 100 would have been laughed at. Now we consider it a normal event and are no longer blown away by the fact that humans can live to be 100. It's completely plausible. How is my declaration that my grandchildren will live to be 200 years old any more far-fetched than a scientist in 1913 saying that his grandchildren would live to be 80? It's really not that different when you think about it.
But here's where I think we are luckiest and where, as Americans, we are far too ignorant. In the status quo, there are still billions of people sharing our planet that will never meet their grandparents. One of my best friends in grad school is a heck of a guy from Zimbabwe. Three of his four grandparents were dead before he was even born. His grandmother is 64 years old. Not only is she the eldest person in her community, but he was the only one of all of the kids in his primary school to have a living grandparent. Pretty crazy, right? Here we can compare the life expectancy of a North Dakotan to a Zimbabwean and it's as though possibilities for one are endless and the other is just coming around to the standard of living in the 1900s. Yet we are inhabiting the same planet at the same time.
I guess the moral of the story is that were are incredibly lucky getting luckier. We shouldn't take that for granted. And who knows, maybe somewhere out there is a Zimbabwean blogging right now - part of the first generation in the developing world that will love long enough to meet all of their grandkids.
Tuesday, April 23, 2013
Please wait until noon to reinforce stereotypes.
I moved to Minneapolis over 4 years ago to begin my college career. Prior to that, I spent the majority of my formative years in one of the 50 least diverse small towns in America. Don't get me wrong, I don't believe that Minneapolis is all that diverse in comparison to many other cities in America and it's not all that scary of a place, but certain individuals belonging to certain groups have blatantly reinforced stereotypes in front of me on numerous occasions, and because of that, I think it's fair to say that I'm probably more prejudiced now than I was when I left that sheltered little town.
This morning, on my bus ride to school, a couple of Native American chumps were stealing sips (chugs) of Four Loko while the bus driver wasn't looking. It's because people like this are loud, obnoxious and half drunk by 9:00 am that I am no longer surprised, or offended when something like this becomes top comment on a reddit post.
This morning, on my bus ride to school, a couple of Native American chumps were stealing sips (chugs) of Four Loko while the bus driver wasn't looking. It's because people like this are loud, obnoxious and half drunk by 9:00 am that I am no longer surprised, or offended when something like this becomes top comment on a reddit post.
Tuesday, April 9, 2013
a first
i'm laying in bed with the covers over the lower half of my body to keep me warm. my laptop is laying on my chest while i watch game of thrones.
my cat is at the foot of the bed.
suddenly: my balls itch.
i reach under the blankets to itch them.
unbeknownst to me, my cat is staring.
the movement under the covers intrigues him.
out of nowhere: cat pounces directly on my balls.
i'm now laying in bed with the covers over an ice pack covering the lower half of my body.
my cat is at the foot of the bed.
suddenly: my balls itch.
i reach under the blankets to itch them.
unbeknownst to me, my cat is staring.
the movement under the covers intrigues him.
out of nowhere: cat pounces directly on my balls.
i'm now laying in bed with the covers over an ice pack covering the lower half of my body.
Friday, April 5, 2013
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