Well, it's that time of year again.
FANTASY FOOTBALL.
Last night (Friday, August 23rd) I had my first draft of the year. It was for my "Empire League." This league is a $100 buy-in. There are 12 teams, standard scoring, auction draft, 1QB 2RB 2WR 1Flex 1TE 1K 1DST 6BN.
Unlike other leagues, at the end of the season, only half the pot is paid out. 1st: $350 2nd: $150 3rd: $100. The other half of the buy-in goes to the "empire pot." In order to win the "empire pot" a manager must win in back-to-back seasons. Hence, the minimum the "empire pot" can be is $1,200 assuming that the same manager wins the championship in both year 1 and year 2. (For example, if no one wins back-to-back until year 9 and year 10, the "empire pot" is worth $6,000!)
Part of the strategy of this league is drafting a winning roster. The other part is drafting young players that are skilled and can lead your team in the future.
My team shook out as follows: (the age of the player is included in parentheses)
QB: Matt Schaub (32)
RB: CJ Spiller (26)
RB: Eddie Lacy (22)
WR: Larry Fitzgerald (29)
WR: Randall Cobb (22)
TE: Jimmy Graham (26)
F: Torrey Smith (24)
K: Dan Bailey (who cares)
DST: New England (irrelevant)
BN: Josh Freeman (25)
BN: Chris Ivory (25)
BN: Jonathan Franklin (23)
BN: Kenny Britt (24)
BN: Rueben Randle (22)
BN: Zach Sudfeld (24)
Will this team win this year? Probably not. Do I have a young core to contend consistently for the next 3 to 5 years? Absolutely.
Notes about the draft:
Originally, I wanted to target Trent Richardson as my franchise player. He is just 22, an elite running back, and presumably has many years ahead of him as the starter in Cleveland. CJ Spiller was nominated about 6th overall, and I had him going for about $57 on my board. As the bidding slowed down, I kept bidding on him because he was being undervalued. Suddenly the bidding stopped altogether and I got him for $49. It was at that point that I had to readjust my drafting strategy (and budget) entirely. I suddenly shifted from being able to afford a crappy tight end to having enough money to draft the best tight end possible.
I had no interest in drafting Larry Fitzgerald, but he was another instance in which the bidding suddenly stopped and I was stuck with a player going for strong value. Am I high on Fitz? No. Do I think he will do better with Palmer as QB? Yes. Was he worth the $23 I paid for him? No doubt about it.
What I love about this draft:
-I love that I have great bench depth. Ivory is a viable bye-week filler, and if Lacy (or Franklin) don't pan out, at least I have a majority-of-the-touches running back to fill in. Britt was an absolute steal at $4, and he could easily compete with Torrey to be my starter at flex. If Britt is finally healthy and lives up to his potential, I could have a very dynamic receiving corps.
-Zach Sudfeld. I'm so high on this guy. If Gronk is injured for the foreseeable future, Sudfeld will get all of the reps at TE and could put up huge numbers. Even if Gronk is healthy, Sudfeld has been so impressive in pre-season that there are rumors that the Patriots may be going to two-tight end sets to include him in the passing game. Sudfeld could absolutely be a key player for my team.
Dislikes:
-Rueben Randle. Will he emerge as a viable threat? Who knows. I'm basically banking on Nicks being hurt as some point in the season.
-The Schaub/Freeman carousel. I knew going in that quarterbacks would be way over valued. (Rodgers went for $69(!!!!) and Brees, Brady, and Manning all for $40+. Just incredible.) For this reason, I chose to wait it out, get good core players later, and take a lower-level QB. Both Schaub and Freeman are viable starters, but they won't put up game-changing numbers.
I don't view this as a championship-contending team in 2013. But could it win back-to-back seasons sometime within the 2014 - 2017 time frame? Barring injuries, I think it is plausible. Here's to hoping.
I'm not sure I buy anything amazing emerging from the Packers' run game... ever. At least not under the current regime and with Aaron Rodgers remaining the focal point of the offense for the relevant future. That and their O-line is pretty bad. I'd be interested to see what other options you could have gone with at RB. Your roster does have some long-term potential though with plenty of young, high-upside guys in Spiller, Graham, Cobb and the rest of your WRs.
ReplyDelete2008: Ryan Grant 1203 yds 5 TDs
ReplyDelete2009: Ryan Grant 1253 yds 11 TDs
2010: (Grant injured) committee: 1085 yds 10 TDs
2011: (Grant injured) committee: 1137 yds 4 TDs
2012: no clear starter
Green Bay - with Rodgers at the helm - has a consistent run game, so long as they have a go-to guy. All the reports out of camp suggest that Lacy is finally the "go-to" guy. If that's the case, I could conservatively see him putting up 1080 and 8 (which is right on par with projections from Yahoo, CBS, and ESPN). In the event that he struggles and a committee is once again needed, at least I have Franklin and am not totally out of the woods.
At the end of the day, I was forced to choose Lacy from the following cluster:
Sproles (non-PPR league), Gore (age 30), Lamar Miller (Miami is going committee), Ryan Mathews (fart on me and I'll be hurt), Le'Veon Bell (already hurt), Ahmad Bradshaw (I wont' ever play a full season), DeAngelo Williams (I'm either hurt or sharing carries), and Daryl Richardson (I was named the starter, but let's be honest, it'll be a 3-way committee this year).
I love that the oldest player on my bench is 25. I really think this team will be able to compete at an elite level in a year or two. (Fingers crossed.)
I would rather have Gore, or Richardson, and Mathews has higher upside.
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