Sunday, August 25, 2013

Cheap League

Earlier today (August 24th) I had the draft for my cheapest league. It is a 12 team, $20 buy-in, 0.5 point PPR, snake draft, 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1Flex, 1K, 1DST, 6BN. This league is a "keeper league" in the sense that each manager keeps only one player from the year before at one draft round better than the previous season. Two years ago, I drafted Demarco Murray on a whim in the 11th round. With Felix Jones getting hurt that season, I kept him last year in the 10th round and this year in the 9th. This might seem like an epic bargain, but the reality is that each team in this league has one player of similar value at a ridiculous round. (This is often the case with taking a stab at rookie players.) My team:

QB: Cam Newton
RB: David Wilson
RB: Demarco Murray
WR: Calvin Johnson
WR: Andre Johnson
TE: Jared Cook
Flex: Eric Decker
K: Matt Prater
DST: St. Louis
BN: Josh Freeman
BN: Chris Ivory
BN: Andre Brown
BN: Mike Williams
BN: Justin Blackmon
BN: Zach Sudfeld

What I love about this draft:
-My receiving corps is unbelievable. Calvin has the potential to go 10/140/2 each week. Granted, he won't do that all season, but you have to love the best receiver in a pass-heavy system. 
-I scored  Cam Newton in the 5th round. I'm a firm believer that - this year especially - one should not reach on a quarterback. The disparity between the best QB and the 12th-best QB isn't nearly as great as the best at other positions and the last starter at other said positions. Nonetheless, I watched as round-by-round all of the "big name" quarterbacks went off the board but Cam stayed put. He was actually my #1 QB on my board in PPR format. If he rushes a ton this year, he could be an absolute steal.
-Justin Blackmon. Sure, he's suspended for a few games. But when he comes back? If Henne replaces Gabbert, defenses will have to plan around MJD (on a contract year) and Cecil Shorts coming off of a breakout 2012 campaign. This could open up the field for Blackmon and he could be an elite receiver.
-Sudfeld. See my prior post.

Dislikes:
-My running back corps. Demarco is sure to get a lot of receptions, but will he stay healthy all year? Who knows. David Wilson has so much potential (he had a heck of a game tonight) but what happens when the Giants get to the goal line? How many goal line TDs will be sniped by Andre Brown? Sure I also drafted Brown (mostly as insurance) but I'm not going to do a committee in my backfield. Ivory is a nice piece because he is a starter and will get plenty of touches, but it's the Jets offense and he is unproven as a the sole guy. I like that he gives me flexibility in the event that Demarco gets hurt and/or the Giants go committee, but still, no one wants Ivory to have to start week-in and week-out.
-Andre Johnson. He's getting old. Can he still be productive? He had a great season last year in terms of receptions and yardage, but he rarely found  the end zone. Can he turn that around? Who knows. I'm fortunate to have a ton of depth at WR, so if AJ gets hurt I can integrate Decker/Williams/Blackmon more consistently. Still, I took him high in the draft. At that spot, you want your players to turn out.

Looking at the starting lineups of other managers in this league, I really like how my team turned out. If I avoid the injury bug, this could be a solid unit that will be a force to be reckoned with in the playoffs. 

4 comments:

  1. I generally agree with your analysis.
    Curious how PPR changes your QB ratings though...

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  2. I laughed reading your Newton PPR comments. I should have explained this better, but that's what happens when Laphroaig meets Premium.

    Given the PPR format, this creates a substantially higher number of points possible for players to have scored during the course of the season. (i.e. Calvin this year has 100 receptions for 1400 yards and 10 TDs. Standard scoring: that is 200 points. 0.5 PPR scoring: 250 points. Do that for every receiver, running back, and tight end...you end up with a lot more points.)

    I always quantify my projections with a dollar value (pretending that it were an auction league even if it is not). Given the additional points scored over the course of the season, this means that the average dollar value per point scored in the season also changes. As such, when measuring the additional points a player scores compared to the first bench player at the position, you multiply this number by the average price per point.

    The result: in standard scoring leagues, there is a cluster of elite QBs all going for roughly the same price. In PPR formats, there is still a cluster, but actual dollar values may differ from player to player. Based on my projections (which I'm high on Cam scoring a bunch of rushing TDs this year) he was the highest valued QB on the board, noticeably so compared to the others. Hopefully that made sense.

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  3. You did well sir, though a risky lineup. Winning this league will be a nice treat after we finish #1 and #2 in El Grandote.

    I'm not sure I agree or maybe I'm not understanding your point. If Cam > Rodgers in a PPR league, Cam > Rodgers in non-PPR. A PPR format would cause more clustering in QB values as QBs are worth less in a PPR format vs non-PPR.

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