Saturday, August 18, 2012

that time of year again

well folks, i just had my first fantasy draft of the year.  thus marks the beginning of the transition where TBTOO goes from short stories/videos/reddit material to non-stop football updates.

this league is with a buddy of mine from in town.  it consists of him, 10 of his friends from high school, and myself.  i really only know him.  all of them went to high school with my wife, so they kind of know who i am by association, but they aren't really close friends at all.

last year was my first year in the league.  they invited me to take over for a manager that stopped paying attention.  they all had this stereotype that i was a "big nerd" and thus would be easy money since, well, nerds don't know anything about sports.  (unbeknownst to them, i'm a hardcore sports fanatic.)

last year i took the team from dead last....to first place.  i'm proud of that.

what i also like about this league is that the winner gets a victory belt.  (it's somewhat reminiscent of the tv show the league for those of you that are familiar).  the belt is an old weightlifting belt that has been modified to include the league symbol, the history of champions, the final scores, etc.  the annual winner's name it etched on the side and they get to keep the belt for a year.  it's a cool idea.

anyway, as a recent married man, i had a lot of fun making this draft as awkward/sarcastic/uncomfortable as possible.  to these 11 guys the belt is like the shiva.  they covet it.  they flaunt it.  so, as such, i intentionally didn't bring it to the draft.

guy in the league: "where's the belt?"
me: "it's getting sterilized."

other guy in the league: "what has been your best moment with the belt?"
me: "i wore it on my wedding night."

yet another guy in the league: "why didn't you bring the belt to the draft?"
me: "do you have any idea where that thing has been?"

finally one guy just got it right: "how about we put the entry fees towards making a new belt?"

back to the draft.

this league is a "keeper" and i say that loosely, because you only keep one guy one round earlier than the previous season.  last year i took a stab at demarco murray in the 11th round.  let's just say i kept him this year in the 10th.  it's a half-point PPR league, reverse draft order based on standings, snake draft.  thus, i had the 12th, 13th, 36th, 37th, etc. overall picks all the way through pick 180.

round 1: darren mcfadden
-i know he's injury prone.  but this was my thought process: if he's healthy, i just got the best steal of the draft at number 12.  why not take that chance?  he's a stud in PPR formats.  if he stays healthy, he will be one of the top backs this year.  he has the capability of being the best overall running back.  oakland has a nice O-line, some decent receiving threats, and i just like mcfadden.  pleeeeaaaase stay healthy.

round 2: roddy white
-not high on him at all this year.  many of the upper echelon guys were keepers (i think ray rice went in the 7th, foster in the 8th, etc.) so by the time the 12th overall pick came my way, there wasn't much left in RB depth.  andre, calvin, welker, and fitzgerald were off the board.  for me, roddy was much more valuable than any other RBs or WRs on the board, so i felt the value was right.

round 3: marques colston
-i don't think brees will put up the numbers he did last year, but i do think colston will put up higher numbers than he did last year.  especially with meachem out of the equation and lance moore being susceptible to injuries.  i'm a little nervous about playcalling with a new coach, but with brees at the helm i'm just gonna trust that colston will be a solid #2 WR.

round 4: antonio gates
-i'm pretty high on gates this year.  he has said he's in the best shape of his life and that he was able to get rid of injuries over the offseason.  let's hope he was telling the truth because i usually never take a TE this year (especially with the depth at the position this year).  nonetheless, rivers doesn't have many targets to throw to in SD, so i'm hoping gates has a stellar year.  fingers crossed...

round 5: eli manning
-he was hands-down the best QB available, and my projections had him scoring considerably more than any other position player on the board.  i didn't want to risk him going off the board and having to gamble on a big ben/josh freeman type to be the weekly starter on my team.  i'm ok with eli.

round 6: shonn greene
-greene is one of my mid-level sleepers this year.  yes, tebow will probably get some of the rushes that would have otherwise gone to greene.  however, mcknight doesn't really scare me.  greene has good hands and is a viable flex option in a PPR league (which is exactly what i plan to do with him).  remember his rookie season when some took him as high as #4 overall?  i don't think greene will have upper-echelon numbers, but i do think at the end of the season most owners will look back and think "man, how did greene drop to the 6th round?"  i love him as a flex play.

round 7: kenny britt
-yes, i know he'll probably be suspended for the first 4 or so games.  but this was a huge value pick on the board in the 7th round.  why not take a stab at him?  i have roddy and colston, so it wasn't like i was planning on using britt as a starter.  let's say he gets reinstated week 5 and hypothetically returns to some of his pre-ACL monster numbers.  then i have one of the best receivers as my flex.  it's a gamble i was willing to take for the value at that pick.

round 8: greg little
-little is arguably my biggest sleeper.  i know he only had (i think) 2 touchdowns last year.  but he got a ton of touches for the browns.  (obviously when you think of cleveland, you don't instantly think of a high-powered offense.)  however i think he'll grow in his 2nd season.  if they get any semblance of an improved passing game, i know his targets will increase substantially.  he'll be a good bye-week filler.  nothing more, nothing less.

round 9: ryan williams
-i'm not convinced that beanie wells will end the season as arizona's starter.  williams gave him a huge run-for-his-money during training camp last year before succumbing to injury.  it should be noted that williams had a patellar injury, not a torn ACL/MCL/PCL etc.  thus, i don't think he'll lose his cutting ability.  i'm thinking he could be getting the majority of touches come week 6.

round 10: demarco murray
-what a steal.  the number 12 overall RB on my board taken with pick 109.  #winning

round 11: rashad jennings
-i'm willing to bet he gets at least 2 starts in september.  this was mostly just a flier in case MJD legitimately misses the entire season with his holdout.  i guarantee he doesn't, but rashad was worth the gamble.  plus, mcfadden and murray have the same bye week in week 5.  hopefully if MJD is still on his holdout it will last until week 5, because then i have yet another guaranteed starter in jennings.

round 12: brandon lafell
-trivia time: besides steve smith, who else is cam newton going to pass to?  give up?  the answer is lafell.  smith is getting old, there are no other legitimate receiving threats, and greg olsen can only do so much.  lafell has had a decent pre-season and i really think he'll get good looks and plenty of touches as the season progresses.  besides, by the time i would hypothetically need him to fill in a bye week, kenny britt should be back from suspension.

round 13: mike goodson
-clearly, he is my handcuff for mcfadden.  how no one drafted him beforehand makes no sense to me.  when you look at the top 15 running backs, you should ask yourself, "who among these is most likely to get injured?"  the answer should be "darren mcfadden."  i can't believe no one else jumped on him earlier.  (some handcuffs were being taken as early as the 6th and 8th rounds.  wow!)  now i'm feeling very good about my RB situation if injuries were to occur.

round 14: new york jets
-just a DST

round 15: (mr. irrelevant) blair walsh
-hopefully the pre-season is an indicator of what he'll do.  i just hope he's more accurate than in college.

LINEUP:
QB: eli manning
RB: darren mcfadden
RB: demarco murray
WR: roddy white
WR: marques colston
TE: antonio gates
FLEX: shonn greene
K: blair walsh
DST: new york jets
BN: kenny britt
BN: greg little
BN: ryan williams
BN: rashad jennings
BN: mike goodson
BN: brandon lafell

my overall thoughts:
i've never had a draft where i don't select a backup QB.  this is the first time i've ever done it.  my justification: eli's bye week is week 11.  so most of the season will be over by the time i even need him.  he's not historically injury prone, so there should be relatively little risk going with only one QB for the first 10 weeks of the year.  i'm reluctant about depending on antonio gates.  if he gets injured, there really is no one available as a free agent.  so my TE will just suck for the entire season.  i drafted strategically by selecting a QB, TE, and DST that all have different bye weeks.  the reason: i really like the potential my bench has and don't want to get rid of possibly 2 of them in one week if 2 of my positions that don't have backups both have bye weeks that week.  thus, come week 7 when gates has a bye, i only have to drop one of my bench guys (depending on production/battles it'll likely be a RB).  i can then drop the replacement person during my DST bye week (9) and my QB bye week (11).  blair walsh will just be dropped for a different K since there really isn't a difference in kicker production.  he may even be dropped earlier in the season if he has early-season accuracy issues.

i really like this team.  it has a ton of potential so long as everyone stays healthy.  almost my entire bench is a gamble, but i think at least one of them will pay off handsomely.  as long as i make it through the season injury-free, i think the belt may be coming back my way.

1 comment:

  1. I like your starting lineup. A lot really. I'm higher on Roddy than you are. I'm higher on Julio than Roddy, but Roddy's in better shape than he was last year and his chemistry with Ryan isn't going to just go away. I'm not a big fan of your bench though. Beyond Kenny Britt (who you know is a huge injury risk, not to mention his off-the-field issues) you don't really have any WR depth. And most, if not all, of your "backup" running backs won't score more than 1 or 2 points a week unless someone continues a holdout or gets injured.

    I lol'd at the belt story though.

    ReplyDelete