fantasy football - draft 2

i had another draft earlier this week.  it is a brainerd league that has been going on since the early 2000s.  i consistently do well in it and (over the long term) have made money from it.

scoring in this league is quite a bit different.  (it's anything but standard).  for starters, all touchdowns are 6 points.  this really inflates the value of a QB.  for the longest time most people in our league didn't understand this.  every year i would swipe the first QB off of the board in the 2nd or 3rd round and would do quite well throughout the year.  over time, however, more people have caught on to this and QBs are taken immediately following the top tier RBs.  for example, looking at the draft results, there were 6 QBs taken in the first two rounds.  (last year people mocked me for taking rodgers #5 overall in that league...they weren't laughing when i dominated the regular season and lost a heart breaker in the championship game.)

in addition to inflated QB values, yards are as follows:
passing: 50 yds per point
rushing: 20 yds per point
receiving: 20 yds per point

this creates pretty low scoring.  think about it: 120 rushing/receiving yards and 300 passing yards are the equivalent of a TD.  yeah, it's kind of a crazy league.

i had the #9 overall pick.  it's a snake format.  i'll provide my analysis.

1st round: lesean mccoy.
i couldn't believe he fell to me  here.  i told myself i wouldn't draft a QB in the first round if one of my top 4 guys were still available.  mccoy is #4 on my board, so i was stoked when he was still here.  i think philly's offense will be pretty tight.  you can't deny that he gets a ton of yardage and hopefully he'll see more trips to the endzone.

2nd round: michael vick.
again, HOW DID I GET SO LUCKY?  my initial strategy was to take either rodgers or vick at #9, depending on their availability.  i was pretty sure that they would both be gone by #9 overall.  rodgers went #5 and i was preparing to take vick until mccoy dropped to me.  on the comeback the top 3 WRs were taken and for whatever reason phillip rivers was taken one pick ahead of me.  vick fell to me, plain and simple.  these are the breaks that can define a championship season.  i really hope he performs up to his 2010 standards.  i know there are a lot of people not willing to gamble on vick this year....but i'm a gambling man.  if he hits, i think i'll hit it big.

3rd round: mike wallace.
ouch.  on my target board i was really wanting to get a strong #2 RB.  i watched as matt forte kept falling.  i was really hoping he would slip to me and then...BOOM i got sniped one pick beforehand.  at this point all of the elite WRs were gone and i had a choice between reggie wayne or mike wallace.  99 times out of 100 i would take wayne.  but i'm just not convinced that peyton will be fully healthy this year.  i know he never misses games, but for whatever reason i'm afraid of major neck surgery.  i trust painter (sarcasm) very much, but you can't deny wallace's speed and frequent endzone visits (which is vital in this league).  wallace it is.

4th round: dez bryant.
again, i got sniped at this pick.  i really wanted jahvid best, but he got taken (yet again) the pick immediately before mine.  deangelo williams was the best RB on the board, but between his injury history and splitting time with jonathan stewart, i just didn't feel good taking him there.  i've always been a huge dez bryant advocate.  it's one thing to have a ligament injury, but it's another to break a bone.  broken bones are much easier to come back from--and let's be honest--he had a pretty good rookie campaign.  i love dallas' offense this year, and i really think romo will utilize all of his weapons.  between miles austin and jason witten in the air and felix jones on the ground, i think bryant will have plenty of opportunities to make big fantasy impacts this year.

5th round: jason witten.
i know what you're thinking: "is ahmed a huge fan of the NFC east or something?"  the answer is no.  as it turns out, 2 eagles and 2 cowboys just happened to be the best names on my board at that given time.  i really wanted to get my #2 RB at this position, but by this time all of the available running backs had a much lower value than witten.  if it's a choice between taking witten or fred jackson, i take witten every single time.

6th round: ryan matthews.
at this point i really had to fill my #2 RB hole.  i was very apprehensive about taking matthews here.  splitting time with tolbert is definitely an issue, although norv turner claims that matthews is the number one option in san diego.  i know matthews came into camp in poor condition, but all of the latest reports talk about how his conditioning has improve immensely during training camp and how he is looking good.  my hope is that he will live up to his pre-draft 2010 hype and become an elite RB.  i doubt it'll happen, but if it does, my team is set.

7th round: knowshon moreno.
since i knew that my #2 RB would be weaker than everyone else in the draft, i felt i should draft moreno for emergency purposes.  mcgahee will certainly take looks away from the goal line, but moreno is still a #1 back for a team that (historically) has always loved to rush the ball.  if matthews doesn't turn out the way i think he will, moreno is a serviceable option for his replacement.

8th round: daniel thomas.
i know it is ridiculous to take 3 RBs in a row, but hear me out: as mentioned in my first post, i'm pretty big on thomas this year.  i love his frame and guarantee that he gets any type of goal line look first ahead of bush (or anyone else on miami for that matter).  plus, due to some overlapping bye weeks, i needed another RB.

9th round: michael crabtree.
this was a reach.  i really needed my final WR slot filled.  historically, this has always been my strategy in this league: don't worry about your final WR slot until late in the round.  the way i figure: with our yardage numbers as they are, there's always going to be one position on a team that doesn't contribute much.  think about it: a player gets 50 yards receiving.  in our league, that's 2.5 points...hardly anything.  i'd much rather have my #3 WR be my lack-of-points guy than my QB or either of my RBs.  every team always has a hole in their lineup--that's just the beauty of fantasy football.  i decided to keep my "hole" at the 3rd receiver position.  crabtree might stretch the field a little bit with edwards in town.  i don't love this pick, but i don't hate it either.

10th round: joe flacco.
with that, i took the first backup QB of the draft.  you can see my first draft analysis for flacco.  let's just say i'm big on him this year and love him as a backup QB.

11th round: davone bess.
i was targeting danny amendola here as i think he'll have an improved/bigger role in the rams' offense this year.  but guess what: he got taken the pick before me.  bess puts up good yardage and is mostly a strong PPR guy.  he'll find the endzone occasionally.  i mostly just picked him up in case crabtree is even more of a disappointment than his career thus far.

12th round: brandon pettigrew.
a solid backup TE in an offense that i think will really take off this year.  pettigrew got me through the hard times of my big-money-PPR league last year.  this was more a sentimental pick than anything, but one i think can turn into fantasy production so long as stafford stays healthy.

13th round: derrick mason.
will he play much?  will he get cut?  will he be targeted at all behind plaxico and santonio?  who knows.  is he a proven veteran with leadership capability and an uncanny ability to pick up offenses and find open spaces on the field?  yes.  is that worth a 13th round pick?  to me, yes.

14th round: detroit DST.
let's just hope between suh, fairley, and vandenbosch that my sack total is about 5 per week.  definitely not the best defense in the league, but with fantasy football it's always a tossup when it comes to which DSTs will be in the top 10 in point production at the end of the year.  who knows, maybe detroit will be one of those surprises.

15th round: nick folk.
mark sanchez still has a tendency to stall drives just outside of the red zone.  let's hope that this continues and that folk is accurate enough to consistently make those 40-yarders.

starting lineup:
QB: vick
RB: mccoy
RB: matthews
WR: wallace
WR: bryant
WR: crabtree
TE: witten
K: folk
DST: detroit

BN: moreno
BN: thomas
BN: pettigrew
BN: bess
BN: flacco
BN: mason

as a whole, i'm fearful to see what kind of production comes out of my #2 RB and #3 WR slots.  in a league that so heavily favors TDs, my hope is that vick and wallace carry me throughout the year as mccoy and bryant occasionally pitch in as well.  for a league where 65 total points in a week is generally a good score capable of winning the matchup, i'll be really confident if and only if vick, wallace, and witten maintain the same levels of production they had last year.  it'll be interesting to see how this team turns out.