i had my first fantasy football draft of the year. it was for a 12 team, 1/2 point PPR, 1 keeper team. the one rule for the keeper is as follows: if you keep a player, you have to draft him one round earlier than you drafted him the year before.
i inherited a really crappy team from a guy who drafted really crappily. my only real option worth keeping was tom brady. last year he was taken in the 3rd round. considering i had the 5th overall pick, i felt that keeping him in the 2nd round at pick #19 was a fair value. it's a little high for where i would place brady...but given my options, it was the only thing i could do.
the draft went well except for the fact that some teams are just stacked. for example, ray rice was drafted in the tail end of the draft years ago. so despite being kept for a few years, he still went in the 8th round. jamaal charles went in the 7th. arian foster went in the 11th. keep in mind that these teams still had a 1st round pick. so when it comes down to it, some clubs literally have 2 top 5 running backs. insane.
before i get into the draft, i feel like i should preface my analysis with a few statements. first, this was the first year i drafted with these guys. i'm really only friends with one of them and loosely know a second. i had no idea how they would be drafting. as it turns out, they a) are "homies" (vikings players go way higher than they should); b) overvalue RBs; c) draft sleepers much earlier than anticipated. i was pretty shocked by some of their drafting habits. for example, devin aromashodu (spelling?) went in the 6th round...THE SIXTH ROUND. i couldn't believe it. players like turner, jackson, gore, and forte went before roddy white was taken as the 2nd receiver. i was also shocked by how many QBs were taken early. maybe this gives you a better idea of the guys i was drafting with.
this is how my draft went.
round 1: andre johnson.
my analysis: with rice, charles, and foster being kept, i really had no options at the #5 spot. ap, cj, mjd, and lesean rounded out the top 4. mcfadden was on the board, but on my cheatsheet i had andre having a bigger year so i took him as a no brainer. i'm ok with having the best WR in the game, especially given the RBs that were available.
round 2: tom brady.
i was stuck with him here. like i said before, probably a little high, but i'll still take him.
round 3: peyton hillis.
i was surprised when peyton slipped down to me. i know he'll have some carries taken away by starks, and with hardesty coming off of surgery who knows. i hope cleveland doesn't have a run-by-committee year, but all i've heard is that hillis will still be the focal point. considering his PPR production and that so many other RBs had been taken (again, not sure how he slipped down to me) i felt that this was the best value on the board.
round 4: brandon marshall.
i know i know i know. i had to put up with marshall last year in my "big money" league. he is a total head case. that being said, i see signs of improvement in the dolphins preseason games. and marshall always gets a ridiculous amount of targets during games. i'd much rather have a guy who will get targets than a guy who is guaranteed to catch a ball but will only be thrown to 5 times a game. again, at this point in the draft i was shocked at how many RBs were gone and felt that there was so much value at WR that i had to draft marshall. he was clearly the best on my board.
round 5: stevie johnson.
this was by far the toughest pick for me. for some strange reason (likely because by this point every team besides mine already had 2 or 3 RBs) but somehow felix jones fell all the way to me at this position. this pick was a huge tossup for me because i love jones' PPR value. and you can't overlook the fact that he also had 800 rushing yards last year. however, on my board (and i know a lot have him lower) i had johnson right beneath marshall. basically, by my rankings, it was as though not one other WR had been taken the entire time. now, i know with the bills trading way evans that johnson really has no deep threat to make him valuable. and i know that the bills' passing game will probably suck and that johnson will get double covered throughout the year. but at that value, i just had to snatch him up. the way i look at it: 1200 total yards and 40 receptions from jones isn't going to get me as far as 900 yards and 80 receptions from johnson. even though there is a minute difference in points there, johnson still gets me more in the long run.
round 6: benjarvus green-ellis.
this was a stretch. at this point i knew i really needed my #2 running back and there was no one available. i don't like this pick at all....who knows what will happen in new england with woodhead, ridley, and vereen in town.
round 7: daniel thomas.
i couldn't believe he fell to me here. i wanted to pick him over the law firm in round 6, but felt that i needed a proven veteran with goal line experience, so i passed on thomas. when he fell to me on the comeback of round 7, i was elated. i think he'll have great value in miami, even with bush in town. plus, if the year goes well, he could be my keeper next season.
round 8: kellen winslow
by this point the draft was getting pretty thin. i needed a tight end and all the top tier guys had been taken. people forget that winslow led the buccaneers in receptions last year. he might not get as many targets with mike williams emerging, but he'll still be a productive TE. the only downside is that he hasn't had more than 5 TDs in his career...hopefully he'll turn that around in the first year i've ever drafted him.
round 9: joe flacco.
again, since the draft was getting thing, i thought i would be the first to take a backup QB since i had his value much higher than any remaining RB/WR/TE. i thought last year was a fluke for flacco. if he turns out to be the QB i think he will be, i'll have the safest QB situation in the league.
round 10: mike thomas.
again, this was a crapshoot like many other players i took. with mike sims-walker out of jacksonville, thomas could be just like stevie johnson: double covered and the only receiving threat on his team. how this impacts his value could bite me in the butt if he's always covered. i hope he turns out--he would be a great bye week filler.
round 11: danny woodhead.
with woodhead still on the board, i decided to draft him for 1) his PPR value but also 2) as insurance in the event that the law firm gets injured. woodhead is an all around guy who can provide decent total yardage, receptions, and touchdown value.
round 12: kevin walter.
i figured that if thomas doesn't pan out, walter is a safe bye week filler. i know that he'll always be second fiddle to AJ and owen daniels, but he's still a great slot receiver who will get you 5+ receptions a game and about 60 yards per. he's good for the occasional TD as well. i know jacoby jones splits time with walter, but i'm totally fine with him serving solely a bye-week-filler type of role.
round 13: zach miller.
again, wtf am i doing? i keep drafting all of these guys in new situations, whether it is losing a teammate or moving to a new team. do i feel comfortable with him getting thrown to by either t-jack or charlie whitehurst? heck no. do i feel comfortable with him playing second fiddle to mike williams and sidney rice? heck no. do i think he was the best player overall available at that point in the draft? yes, yes i do.
round 14: kansas city DST.
hopefully the run defense prevents points on the board and hali gets me 50 sacks. 'nuff said.
round 15: alex henery.
the most accurate kicker in college football history. he'll easily become a top-10 kicker this year and, if no one on my team pans out, will be my keeper next year.
overall summary:
i took a lot of gambles on players in new situations. honestly, i don't like this team much at all. for all practical purposes, hillis, johnson, and thomas may suffer given their new situations. marshall may continue to be a head case. the law firm and woodhead may share carries between 4 running backs in new england.
i'm scared for what this season may offer. hopefully the changes all of these guys are encountering are good ones.....or else i'm definitely missing the playoffs.
final roster:
QB: brady
RB: hillis
RB: the law firm
WR: AJ
WR: marshall
TE: winslow
FLEX: stevie johnson
K: henery
DST: chiefs
BN: daniel thomas
BN: flacco
BN: mike thomas
BN: woodhead
BN: walter
BN: miller
could be an ugly season for this team. sorry man.
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