Here We Go Again

Well, I can’t believe I’m saying this, but it’s that time of year again.  You know, CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP WEEKEND.  I’m going to dish out my horrible analysis of what I see this coming weekend.  Here goes nothing.

Ultimately, there are four Super Bowl scenarios that could take place:

New England vs. San Francisco

New England vs. Atlanta

Baltimore vs. San Francisco

Baltimore vs. Atlanta

My analysis here is eerily similar to last year (although I couldn’t find the post?  Perhaps I deleted it accidentally?)

The last thing I want to hear for two weeks is day-in and day-out analysis about “Harbaugh Bowl” this or “Harbaugh Brothers” that.  If Baltimore and San Francisco both win, I won’t even want to watch the Super Bowl by the time it rolls around.  There is only so much Harbaugh talk I can handle.  I get it: it’s a great storyline.  So let’s not ruin it, eh?

I love New England at home.  Had Denver won, I would have had Denver favored to beat New England.  Unfortunately Denver’s D choked late and Manning threw that 2009-Brett-Favre-esque interception that will pain Bronco fans for generations.  We can’t talk about what could have been, so let’s focus on what will be.

The Pats’ offense is just too good.  Even without Gronk, they proved last week that they are a machine in which parts are easily replaced.  Missing a tight end?  No problem, we’ll have a running back go balls out.  As much as I love the Ray Lewis storyline and would kill to see him go out on top, I just don’t see the Ravens defense performing at a level capable of beating New England.  Don’t get me wrong – I said the same thing last year – so I will be pleasantly surprised if Baltimore keeps pace with the Pats. 

I think Baltimore does have a slight advantage in that Flacco is playing for a huge contract next season.  I know most people think this type of argument is complete BS – I’m generally in that same boat.  But when a kid makes it to the playoffs every year of his career and just can’t quite make it past that last AFC Championship hurdle, people start to notice.  (Just look at Matt Ryan in the NFC; had Atlanta lost last weekend the headlines would have been riddled with “choke” or “Can Ryan Really Compete?” titles.)  Flacco has really surprised me this postseason with his stellar play.  Ray Rice hasn’t been much of a factor, instead Anquan, Smith, and Pitta have stepped up at huge points in the game.  Ultimately, I still see the Pats coming out on top, but this time not because of a missed field goal.

New England: 28

Baltimore: 24

In the NFC we have an interesting matchup of one explosive offense and one explosive defense.  One incredible athlete and one susceptible defense.  I don’t care that Atlanta is at home.  Their defense had holes last week against Seattle.  Were it not for an epic comeback (in what was one of the most exciting playoff games I have seen in recent memory) Matt Ryan and company would be back home wondering what the heck they do wrong every January.  Fortunately for Matt Bryant, mulligans apparently do count in the NFL.

The key, however, is a simple question: how do you contain Colin Kaepernick?  His game against Green Bay solidified him as one of the most dangerous players in the postseason.  His passes are not only accurate, but his arm strength is impressive.  Couple that with his ungodly running ability and you have the new prototype NFL quarterback: big, strong, quick, and accurate.  (There’s a reason Geno Smith is currently projected to be taken #1 in the 2013 draft.  Welcome to the NFL of the future.)

As much as I love Atlanta’s offense, I hate Atlanta’s defense.  I guarantee that once they finally contain Kaepernick, he’ll run an option read, drop back to pass, and hit Crabtree all night long for out routes and/or slant patterns for first downs.  How do you stop that?  Atlanta doesn’t have an upper-echelon cover corner.  That is the key to stopping this kind of offense: have 7 or 8 in the box to prevent the run knowing that you have shut-down corners/safeties to prevent the short gains and deep ball.  Sorry Atlanta, but this one is in the bag for San Francisco.

San Francisco: 38

Atlanta: 27

For the Super Bowl, I think this will be much like when New England faced the Giants in 2012.  San Francisco has a solid pass rush capable of shutting down Brady.  Their run defense is one of the best and should really limit the success of the Patriots both up the middle and downfield.  Where New England could really hurt the 49ers is if they run more sweep plays, bubble screens, or quick tosses to their speedy inside receivers.  The 49ers are athletic up front, but those types of plays force the second tier to make plays.  Not that their linebackers are bad by any means, but I’m sure if New England can get 4-5 yards per play, they’ll take it.

Ultimately, I see the 49ers stopping the Patriots on a number of possessions.  Like the Falcons, I don’t think the Patriots have a defense that is impenetrable.  Again, the option read will be powerful.  I like Talib in the secondary, but I think Vernon Davis’ athletic ability can outperform any New England linebacker.  Instead of relying on Crabtree to make plays, Davis could be an option up the middle.  I see this as being not so much a high scoring affair, as a game coming down to capitalizing on opportunities.  Whereas I foresee San Francisco being able to capitalize repeatedly, I think New England will be stymied on one or two important possessions.

San Francisco: 34

New England: 30

Here’s a quick recap of my “bold predictions” from week 17 of last year:

- If the Giants lose Sunday, Tom Coughlin will be fired.

Well, the Giants won, so we may never know…I still stand by this.  He just happened to win a Super Bowl instead…
- John Gruden will coach the Rams next year – which is a shame because I don't think it is fair to judge any coaching performance given the injuries the Rams have had this season.

I missed the boat on this one.  I was certain that Gruden had the itch to come back.  I didn’t believe he liked the commentary life.  I was wrong.  In my defense, the Rams did hire a Gruden-esque coach in Fisher.

- Gary Kubiak will receive a contract extension even if the Texans lose in the first round.

Ding ding.  Kubiak signed an extension in June.  The Texans actually won their first round game, although this should be considered even more impressive given the fact that Schaub was out for the entire playoffs and they won the Wild Card game with a rookie QB.

- Andy Dalton will win the rookie of the year award.

Cam Newton won, which was a shame.  Apparently individual numbers are more important than leading a crappy team to the playoffs.  Honestly, after their second seasons in the NFL, would you rather have Cam or Andy?  Personally, I’d choose Andy.  He’s not as athletic, won’t put up comparable rushing statistics, but he’s a team player and the man doesn’t whine.  Take notes, Cam.

- Adrian Peterson will not play in week 1.  I don't care what people and reporters are saying.

I’m glad I was wrong about this one.  AP proved once again he is a freak of nature.  I like to think he viewed this blog post and used it as motivation for the season.  “I have to prove that douchebag Ahmed wrong.  He doesn’t know anything about football.”  Yeah, I’m sure AP’s thought process went something like that.

- I will have a better fantasy football season in 2012 than I did in 2011.

Nailed it.  I took home over $300 in profits, and that was despite breaking even in my $250 league.

Bold predictions 2013 edition:

-Former NDSU player/assistant coach Gus Bradley will be a head coach next season

-The Bears will have a worse record than they did this year

-Adrian Peterson will not rush for more than 2,000 yards (please use this as motivation)

-RG3 will not play in Week 1 of next season (please use this as motivation)

-RG3 will, however, win rookie of the year

-Ray Lewis will mention his son’s NFL future multiple times in his new gig as analyst

-Matt Barkley will not be the first QB drafted (I’m saying this PRE-combine)

-New Orleans will be the most improved team

-The NFC East will have 2 teams in the playoffs

-The Bengals will not make the playoffs